NEBRASKA
While not a particularly exciting state geographically, Nebraska is certainly a very exciting state electorally. Yes, the Cornhusker State is one of only two states (the other being Maine) that splits its electoral votes: two votes are awarded to the state’s overall popular vote winner, and the remaining three are distributed between the popular vote winners in the state’s three congressional districts. This unique system was created by a 1991 law, and up until the 2008 Presidential election, it didn’t change anything; the Republican presidential candidate, by finishing first in all three congressional districts, won all five of Nebraska’s votes.
But all of that changed in 2008 when Barack Obama won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha. Suddenly, a very Republican state, that had only gone blue in one presidential election since 1940, was awarding an electoral vote to the Democrats, all because of the politics of its largest city. Although Romney flipped the 2nd district back to the Republicans in 2012, and Donald Trump won it too four years later, in 2020, the district once again went to a Democrat, Joe Biden.
This election cycle, Trump’s victory may hinge on winning Nebraska’s 2nd district. In fact, it represents Trump’s only viable road to the White House that doesn’t require the Rust Belt. If the former President flips only Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada on election day, he loses to Kamala Harris, 270-268. But if he can win the 2nd district, then the two candidates tie in the electoral college, and the House’s Republican majority gets to select a winner, which, unsurprisingly, will be Trump.
Statewide, Republican support in Nebraska remains steady. In the 2022 House elections, the GOP won 62.71% of the vote, almost identical to their performances in both 2020 and 2018. And although Nebraska remains solidly red, this is not a good sign for Trump; his support appears to have stagnated in the state, which makes flipping the 2nd district an uphill battle.
Therefore, we predict that Donald Trump will perform very similarly in Nebraska to his 2020 run. And, as a result, we can expect Kamala Harris to hold on to the 2nd district, thereby avoiding an electoral tie.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Although not as Republican as its neighbor to the north, South Dakota is certainly a bright red state, nonetheless. The home of Mount Rushmore voted for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin; Trump won with 61.8% of the vote to Biden’s 35.6%. And while you may not know much about South Dakotan politics, you probably know Governor Kristi Noem (yes, the lady who shot her dog).
Noem was first elected in 2018, in South Dakota’s closest gubernatorial election since 1986. She barely beat the Democrat candidate, former professional bronc rider and Minority Leader of the South Dakota senate, Billie Sutton. Noem finished the race with 51% of the vote, and Sutton finished second with a commendable 47.6% of the vote. Noem’s victory made her the first female governor of South Dakota and extended the longest active hold on a governorship by one party; the GOP has controlled the governor’s office in the state since 1978.
With the presidential election coming up this November, Donald Trump will certainly win South Dakota. So, what chance does he have to increase his victory in the state?
In 2022, South Dakota had a gubernatorial, Senate, and House election. In the governor’s race, Noem performed significantly better than in her first election, receiving 62% of the vote to her Democrat challenger’s 35.2%. In the Senate election, incumbent Republican John Thune cruised to his 4th victory with 69.6% of the vote. Thune, however, did perform slightly worse than in his last election; he received 71.8% of the vote back in 2016. In South Dakota’s at-large House district election, Republican Dusty Johnson was reelected to his 3rd term with 77.4% of the vote. Curiously, Johnson had no Democratic challenger in either his 2022 or 2020 race, instead running against two different libertarian candidates. Nevertheless, Johnson (like Thune) performed worse than his last run, with Johnson’s share of the vote declining by 3.6 points from 2020.
So, although Kristi Noem had a big victory in the 2022 midterms, it was largely due to her facing a weaker Democrat opponent than she did four years prior. In fact, 2022 was an overall worse year for the GOP in South Dakota than 2020 was. With this in mind, we predict that Donald Trump will win South Dakota roughly in line with his 2020 numbers.
NORTH DAKOTA
North Dakota is an often-overlooked Great Plains state. While its sister to the south has Mount Rushmore, the only thing the Roughrider State has is a tapped-out oil boom and a governor who was almost Trump’s running mate. So, what chance does Kamala Harris have in a state that resoundingly voted for Donald Trump in 2020? The answer is probably not a very big one.
To start, Trump won North Dakota by a menacing 33 points four years ago (65% to 32%); this was a two-point improvement over his 2016 run, although his margin of victory was 2.3 points lower. But since 2020, Republicans have shown slight weakness in the state. Again, we must turn to the 2022 midterm election to see how the GOP performed in North Dakota. Two years ago, John Hoeven, who was also the state’s governor from 2000-2010, ran for his third term in the Senate. And while in 2014 Hoeven won an absolutely mind-boggling 78.6% of the vote to his Democratic challenger’s 17% (a freakish margin of 61.6 points), in 2022 Hoeven only won 56.4% of the vote in a three-way race, the Democrat and Independent opponents getting 25% and 18.5% of the vote, respectively. Although the independent candidate likely siphoned a significant amount of votes away from Hoeven, this was still an embarrassing decline in performance for a politician who had been a dominant force in the state for over 20 years.
So does this spell trouble for Donald Trump this November? With the glory days of North Dakota’s oil boom behind it, perhaps the Republican dominance in the state will also go bust. As the oil ceases to flow like it used to, production peaked back in 2019, the state’s phenomenal economic growth over the last two decades will no longer be able to keep pace. So as North Dakotans become weary of voting Republican, Trump may have trouble maintaining his 2020 margin of victory.
All things considered, we predict Trump will win North Dakota by roughly 30 points, slightly lower than four years ago, but nonetheless a landslide.
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