COLORADO
Once upon a time, Colorado was a solid red state. Then it was a fierce battleground state. And now, the Rocky Mountain state is safely Democratic. After LBJ’s landslide victory of 1964, the residents of Colorado voted red in the next six consecutive elections. But in 1992, the state flipped for Democrat Bill Clinton, who won 40.1% of the vote to George Bush’s 35.9% and Independent Ross Perot’s 23.3%. But this election was greatly influenced by Perot’s dominant third-party run, which siphoned millions of votes away from the incumbent Republican; and thus, in 1996, Colorado flipped back to the Republicans after Bob Dole narrowly defeated Clinton 45.8% to 44.4%, one of only three states to do so.
In both 2000 and 2004, George Bush had slightly greater, but nevertheless close, victories in the state. However, in 2008, Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain 53.7% to 44.7%, a margin of 9 points. Since then, the GOP has never been able to regain much ground in the state, with Joe Biden having the greatest performance for a Democrat presidential candidate in Colorado in almost 60 years.
But this election, does Donald Trump have a chance to reverse this trend and come within striking distance of Vice President Kamala Harris in the state? To put it plainly, the news isn’t good for the GOP. Taking a look at the 2022 House elections, Democrats won 55.2% of the vote to the Republicans' 42.5%, the worst performance for the party in Colorado since 2006. Even in the blowout midterm election of 2018, where Democrats picked up 41 House seats, the GOP won 42.96% of the state’s vote, a truly terrible sign for Donald Trump.
So why has Colorado been shifting so quickly to the left? The answer is that it’s likely due to many factors. For one thing, Denver, Colorado’s capital and biggest city, has seen massive population growth in the last 15 years, with the Denver-Aurora Combined Statistical Area increasing from 3.09 million people in 2010 to 3.62 million today. Additionally, Colorado’s booming tech industry, which supports nearly 140,000 jobs, has grown 37% in the last decade and brought tens of thousands of professionals from California cities to the state. This rapid urban growth and influx of highly educated workers to the state has significantly favored the Democrats and has made the largely Republican rural residents a smaller and smaller portion of the voter base.
We predict that Donald Trump will perform roughly in line with his 2020 results in Colorado. Due to the scale of his loss last time and the unpopularity of the Biden-Harris administration, Trump may be able to win some voters back. But the former president is fighting an uphill battle against a massive shift in Colorado’s demographics away from the Republican Party.
WYOMING
Wyoming has the distinction of being the single most Republican state in the nation. Yes, Wyoming barely beat out West Virginia for this title back in 2020, giving a preposterous 69.94% of its vote to Donald Trump. But could former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney’s and her father’s, former Vice-President Dick Cheney’s, endorsements of Kamala Harris hurt Trump in the state this November?
Since the last presidential election, Liz Cheney, Wyoming’s sole Representative, was primaried by another Republican prior to the 2022 midterms. Cheney was one of the strongest critics of President Donald Trump after the alleged insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, 2021, and vocally supported his impeachment. Later that year she was appointed the Vice Chair of the House January 6th Committee, which investigated, among other things, Trump’s actions after the 2020 election and up until the day of the riot.
Unsurprisingly, her criticism of Trump made her hated within the Republican Party, and she was primaried by Trump-endorsed candidate, Harriet Hageman; Cheney won just 29% of the vote to Hageman’s 66%. This crushing defeat showed that Wyomingians were willing to swiftly turn on their 3-term representative for going against the Republican Party.
In Wyoming’s 2022 midterms, Hageman received 68.2% of the vote, slightly lower than Trump’s percentage two years prior. Interestingly, when we analyzed the results of the prior elections for Wyoming’s House seat, we found that in 4 of the last 6 elections, the winning candidate, who was always a Republican, received 68% of the vote; during his first run in 2016, Donald Trump also received 68% of the vote.
With a state as tilted Republican as Wyoming, there must be a limit to how well a Republican candidate can possibly perform in the state. We believe Trump has reached this limit. Therefore, we predict that Donald Trump will win Wyoming with an almost identical percentage of the vote to his 2020 run. Perhaps he could crack 70%, but we don’t believe that the former President will be in for any major gains or losses.
MONTANA
Montana is often lumped in with its surrounding states in the Mountain West, in terms of its geography, demographics, and politics. And while Montana shares much of the same DNA with its neighbors, it is not identical. Where states like Wyoming and Idaho are nearly entirely rural, white, and universally Republican, Montana is home to slightly larger metros – Bozeman and Missoula – a slightly more diverse population – including a significant Native American presence – and a significantly more divided political landscape.
Now, Montana has leaned red in presidential elections. Voters have consistently backed the Republican nominee since 1996. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump carried the state with 57% of the vote, continuing the conservative stronghold.
However, Trump’s 17% margin of victory was notably tighter than his performance across the rest of the Mountain West: as an example, he won Wyoming by nearly 45%.
While Montana has supported Republicans at the presidential level for the past three decades, it is not monolithic. The state’s voters have a history of splitting their tickets, electing Democrats to statewide offices such as the governorship and even a Senate seat.
Tester, who is up for re-election in 2024, is seen as a key player in the Democrats’ hopes of maintaining a presence in the Mountain West. His success often hinges on winning over the state’s rural and working-class voters, who might otherwise lean Republican.
As mentioned earlier, Montana’s electorate is mostly white, with less than 10% of the population identifying as nonwhite, and is predominantly rural. The state’s large stretches of agricultural land and reliance on industries like mining and logging contribute to its conservative leanings. However, Montana’s growing urban areas, such as Bozeman and Missoula, have been trending more progressive, largely due to an influx of younger residents and out-of-state transplants. These areas could play an increasingly important role in shaping the political direction of the state.
Another factor which may affect the state’s dynamics is how national issues resonate with Montanans. While economic concerns, healthcare access, and gun rights remain top priorities, issues like climate change and land conservation also carry weight in the state, where natural resources are a central part of both the economy and the way of life. Abortion rights may also play a role, though Montana’s more libertarian outlook on personal freedoms could mean the state takes a different stance than its conservative peers in the Mountain West.
Additionally, the state’s small but influential Native American population could impact the outcome. Native voters in Montana tend to vote Democratic, and their turnout could be critical in close races, particularly in areas near reservations like those in Glacier and Big Horn counties.
While Democrats face an uphill battle in Montana: there is little doubt about it. But Harris, who boasts strong popularity numbers among working-class and white voters, along with minority groups, may possess the unique traits necessary to resonate with Montana’s idiosyncratic electorate. That being said, the race will undoubtedly be won by Trump, more than likely by a 15% margin.
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