Indiana, Part 2: Red Ruby of the Midwest
Indiana's demographics, history, and shifting political norms have cemented its red lean in an otherwise competitive region.
Missed it? Read: Indiana, Part 1: A Midwestern Dilemma
Last time, we took a look at the baseline factors shaping Indiana’s Republican politics, contrasting them with other Midwestern states to determine the root causes of its conservatism. Today, we’ll take a deeper dive into its electoral history — including its climactic 2008 showdown between Barack Obama and John McCain.
The Political Shift in Indiana: From Competitive to Solidly Republican
Make no mistake: Indiana has long been a red state. In fact, it has consistently been the preeminent Republican stronghold of the Midwest, if there ever was one.
But as we’ve established last time, Indiana’s Republican lean has only solidified over the last election cycles.
Between the years 1964 (Democrats’ most recent victory apart from 2008) and 2000, Indiana regularly supported Republicans by around 20 points. Even Bill Clinton failed to narrow the margins within 5 points in either of his otherwise-monumental victories in 1992 and 1996.
While Indiana’s partisan lean has remained relatively similar between the late-20th century and our current day, the inner dynamics of the state have shifted dramtically.
The little support that Democrats like Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis could muster came mostly from white, working-class counties located in the extreme southern portion of the state. This reflected a general trend, where the 1980’s Democratic Party was far more successful (and reliant) on capturing white blue-collar voters compared to now.
On the flipside, however, Democrats struggled immensely in the suburbs and had not yet attained the strong support (and turnout) that they receive from urban minority voters today. Take Marion County, which contains Indianapolis and its surrounding suburbs, for example. In 2020, Joe Biden captured an impressive 65% of the county’s vote — nearly matching Obama’s 2008 performance in the county, which was (and remains) a high watermark for Democrats). Biden’s performance was buoyed by strong margins among Black and Hispanic residents of Indianapolis and record support in its highly-educated, affluent, and ideologically-moderate suburbs. Look backwards to the late 20th century, however: Marion County backed Republican candidates in every election between 1964 and 2000, underscoring a general trend where Republicans dominated most of suburban America.
The turn of the century didn’t change much about Indiana politics.
In 2000, George W. Bush won Indiana by 15.6 points against Al Gore - an overwhelming margin of victory, considering that Al Gore had fared better nationally compared to past Democrats like Dukakis and Mondale, and one that did not bode well for Democrats in future state elections. And in 2004, G.W. Bush increased his margin to over 20 points against John Kerry - nearly reaching 60% of the total vote in the state.
But despite this history of clear Republican dominance, in 2008, Democrat Barack Obama achieved an against-all-odds surprise victory in Indiana, winning by just over 1 percentage point.
Obama’s Unusual Success in Indiana
Obama’s win in Indiana in 2008 was the result of a “perfect storm” of circumstances. Obama campaigned vigorously and invested heavily in Indiana, while his Republican opponent, John McCain, reflecting overconfidence in the state, largely neglected it, assuming it was safely Republican. Additionally, dissatisfaction with George W. Bush’s presidency due to aggressive foreign policy, particularly the Iraq War, and other extended military engagements in the Middle East. As these conflicts continued, public approval of Bush’s foreign policy declined significantly, despite initially strong bipartisan support.
And adding on to this, in the last year or so of Bush's term, Bush’s unpopularity peaked with the 2008 financial crisis, which devastated the economy and hit working- and middle-class Americans particularly hard. In Bush’s final year, his approval ratings plummeted, with some polls showing only around 10% of Americans viewing him favorably, while over 80% disapproved - pretty much as close to unanimous as you can get in a nation as closely divided as the U.S..
Obama’s 2008 victory was notable for his performance in traditionally Republican rural areas across the nation. Unlike many Democratic victories that rely heavily on urban and minority voters, Obama expanded his support well into rural areas across states like Iowa and Wisconsin. Obama won Michigan by a substantial 17-point margin in 2008 and also carried Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both by over 15 points. His success in Pennsylvania was particularly notable not only for the margin but for the breadth of his coalition. At the county level, maps from 2008 show these traditionally competitive or Republican-leaning areas colored predominantly blue—an unusual sight for a Democratic candidate, as Democratic support is often concentrated in urban regions that occupy smaller geographic areas.
In Indiana, Obama’s remarkable performance in rural areas was just as pronounced. Comparing Indiana’s 2004 and 2008 election results at the county level reveals a striking shift. In 2004, George W. Bush won roughly 90% of Indiana's counties, with many by margins exceeding 70 points over John Kerry. However, in 2008, John McCain managed to win only about 10 rural counties by more than 10 points. Most other counties showed margins within a 10-point range. Although Obama didn’t secure a majority of Indiana’s counties or even a substantial portion of its rural areas, his ability to significantly reduce Republican dominance in these traditionally red counties speaks volumes about his appeal. This narrowing of margins, even in areas that had consistently backed Republicans, ultimately enabled Obama to win Indiana by a narrow 1.03-point margin, or approximately 29,000 votes.
Indiana’s Shift Rightward from 2008 to 2012
Unfortunately for Democrats, following Obama’s 2008 victory, Indiana quickly returned to the Republican column, taking a hard shift to the right.
Between 2008 and 2012, Indiana saw a dramatic political shift from supporting Democrat Barack Obama to voting for Republican Mitt Romney by over 10 percentage points, marking an 11-point swing to the right.
Indiana’s right shift wasn’t much of an anomaly, as it closely mirrored the rightward shift in Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The period between 2008 and 2012 encapsulated a gigantic shift in electoral politics. Over Barack Obama's first four years in office, his perception and reputation had soured among much of the country, particularly rural voters. His top priorities, like the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), the Wall Street bailouts, and the Dodd-Frank Act, which regulated financial practices after the crash, sparked backlash among working-class voters.
By 2012, Indiana’s political map turned overwhelmingly red. Looking at a county-level map of Indiana from this time period vividly displays this shift: the state was blanketed in dark red, with Obama losing nearly all rural counties by margins of 70 to 80 points—a stark contrast to the narrow Republican wins in many of these areas in 2008.
Beyond voter dissatisfaction, demographic changes in Indiana also contributed to the decline in Democratic support. While the U.S. overall became larger and increasingly diverse, Indiana remained relatively stagnant. As it became whiter, older, and more rural, Indiana became even more favorable to Republicans — and these shifting dynamics would only accelerate with the arrival of Donald Trump.
characteristics that aligned with GOP priorities.