Each Party's Best Sleeper Targets in the 2026 Senate Elections

In 2026, Democrats hope to win a 51-seat Senate majority, while Republicans seek to expand their current one. For either party to do so, they must win in states outside the core competitive arena.

You’ve heard it on CNN, X, or from your next-door neighbors: it’s all about the swing states.

The states Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia decided the 2020 election, and were predicted to determine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former (at the time) President Trump would take the Oval Office in 2024. And in the end, they did.

But in 2026, only three of the above states are holding Senate elections. This represents the smallest “core” playing field out of the past few election cycles. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who defeated incumbent Republican Sen. David Purdue alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock in a dramatic set of Jan. 5, 2021 runoffs that handed Democrats a slim 50-seat majority and set the stage for the Biden administration, is up for reelection. Slightly upwards in latitude is North Carolina, where moderate Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring and popular, recently-out-of-office Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has recently announced a run. Finally, look up north to Michigan, where two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is not running for reelection and the Democratic primary is shaping up to be a bitter, hard-fought contest between MI-11 Rep. Haley Stevens — who is the favored candidate of national Democrats like former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi — and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow — who has received endorsements from many colleagues in the state legislature. Whoever emerges victorious from the Democratic primary will likely face former MI-08 Rep. candidate Mike Rogers, who in 2024 came within 20,000 votes of winning the Wolverine State’s other Senate seat.

These three races will likely be analyzed to death by forecasters and pundits, and for good reason: they will probably feature the closest results and the highest amount of spending due to the relatively large populations and expensive media markets of all three states.

Republicans currently hold a 53-seat majority in the Senate, meaning that Democrats must hold on to their current Senate seats and win four Republican-held seats to win a 51-seat, tiebreaker-proof majority. On a surface level, the cards seem to be stacked in Republicans’ favor. However, their objective should be to not only retain their majority, but expand it.

Large components of Trump’s agenda have either been derailed or delayed due to resistance from the most moderate voices in the caucus: think Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, Utah Sen. John Curtis, and occasionally Kentucky Sen. and former Republican leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell isn’t running for reelection in 2026, and the race to succeed him will likely be hotly contested between former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron and KY-06 Rep. Andy Barr. Of the two, Cameron represents the more mainline conservative while Barr has identified with the far right during his House of Representatives tenure. As mentioned earlier, Tillis is retiring and his seat is up for grabs in 2026, but his proven success as a quasi-moderate Republican in a state where far-right lunatics like former Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson were punished by voters (he lost the state’s 2024 gubernatorial election by 14.8 percentage points) might caution the state party about nominating a more Trumpy successor. Collins is running for reelection in 2026, but again, her track record of success in a Democratic-leaning state should hold off the party from considering a primary challenger despite her moderate voting record in D.C. Finally, Murkowski and Curtis aren’t up for reelection in 2026.

To summarize: at least two (and likely more) members of the moderate wing will remain for the entirety of Trump’s second term, so Republicans would be wise to target additional seats in order to strengthen the conservative core of their majority.

Democrats no longer have to deal with former Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, both perpetual roadblocks who held up many of Democrats’ more progressive agenda items — raising the federal minimum wage, eliminating the filibuster, and the Biden administration’s signature multi-trillion dollar spending package known colloquially as Build Back Better. Their sole objective should be a net gain of four seats, but this simple-sounding task won’t be an easy one. Two of the three swing-state seats are already held by Democrats. Not only does this deprive them of pickup opportunities, but it also forces them to play defense, allocating significant resources towards Michigan and Georgia that could be spent in other areas.

All this being said: it is not just beneficial but absolutely necessary that both parties target seats outside of their “comfort zone” — which I’m defining as states which voted for a single party in both the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.

Democrats

ALASKA: A waiting game for Peltola

For Democrats, Alaska has always been a “wait for lightning to strike” state. former Democratic AK-AL Rep. Mary Peltola has the profile to make that lightning bolt real: popular, bipartisan appeal, and already tested in tough statewide races. She first defeated former Gov. Sarah Palin in a 2022 special election by 3 percentage points, then by 10 in the regular November election. In 2024, despite Trump winning the Last Frontier by 13.1 percentage points, Peltola came within 2.8 points of winning a second full term, despite being defeated by current Republican Rep. Nick Begich III — a full 10 point overperformance. Peltola, with a unique mix of progressive and conservative policy positions — supporting gun rights while being pro-choice and an adamant defender of LGBTQ protections — and a personal brand focused heavily on regional industries like fisheries, is the real deal.

The problem? Dan Sullivan is steady, uncontroversial, and not especially vulnerable. Peltola might decide the smarter play is holding off until Lisa Murkowski’s next cycle in 2028, when an open race could be within reach.

IOWA: A democratic revival?

Iowa has been anything fertile ground for Democrats in the past decade. After former Pres. Barack Obama won the Hawkeye State by healthy margins in 2008 and 2012, the state’s voters lurched to the right and haven’t looked back since. The root cause: the state’s large rural population — primarily in the agricultural industry due to the state’s location amidst the Great Plains — has abandoned Democrats en masse as its center of influence has shifted from the Midwest to the coasts and Republicans — largely led by Pres. Donald Trump — have embraced populism and rhetoric designed to appeal to working-class whites.

In general, the Iowan picture is dire for Democrats, but in a midterm environment, the calculus can change. In 2018, Democrats took 3 of 4 House of Representatives seats despite the state supporting Trump by near-double digits in the surrounding elections of 2016 and 2020. In 2022, Democratic Senate nominee Michael Franken held longtime Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley to the lowest margin of victory in his career. In midterm environments, where high turnout isn’t guaranteed and rural, less highly-educated voters are more likely to stay home, the results have more room for variability.

Add in former Paralympian basketball player Josh Turek, who among a field of Democratic options seems to have the most compelling and authentic narrative, and Iowa might just host a real racr.

Recently, incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst dropped out of the race after delivering an oppo-soundbyte for the ages in response to concerns about Medicaid spending under Trump: “We’re all going to die.” Running to replace her is IA-02 Rep and former news anchor Ashley Hinson, who like most Republicans running for Senate has chosen to embrace Trump fully — which in a state with as strong a MAGA presence as any, might not be a misstep.

Additionally: Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand’s — the only statewide Democrat to win an election in 2022 — strong gubernatorial campaign will very likely benefit the Democratic Senate nominee as a result of its coattail effect.

Despite these favorable conditions, whoever wins the Democratic primary will be fighting a very uphill battle. This is an unavoidable reality for the Democratic party in Iowa. But looking beyond the one seat, a competitive race here (along with a dogfight at the top of the ballot) could breathe life back into the state party.

KANSAS: The independent wild card

Incumbent Republican Sen. and physician Roger Marshall doesn’t draw the same headlines as Josh Hawley or Ted Cruz, but make no mistake: he’s cut from the same ultra-conservative, hardline-MAGA cloth, and that makes him vulnerable to a centrist or independent challenge. Kansas has been trending in intriguing ways: white voters — especially those in suburban collar counties surrounding Kansas City and Topeka, as well as college towns like Lawrence — are moving left, and in 2024, the state handed Trump at 16.1 percent margin of victory while simultaneously trending left by 5.5 points compared to national averages (since the nation as a whole shifted around 6 points to the right). Coupled with a favorable national environment — which seems likely given Trump’s declining popularity numbers — if Democrats can convince KS-03 Rep. Sharice Davids to run, who has consistently overperformed national Democrats since defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder in 2018, things might just get interesting.

There’s another possibly, though: remember all the way back to 2014, when independent candidate and businessman Greg Orman ran in lieu of a Democratic nominee and held longtime incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts to a smaller-than-expect 12 percent margin of victory despite a Republican-friendly national environment (it was Obama’s second midterm). This strategy has seen repeated success in tightening seemingly-safe Republican races in states like Utah and Nebraska in the years since. These states’ similar demographics —largely white, rural, and not overly religious — which seem to create an environment favorable to third-way candidacies. Kansas could become one of the cycle’s strangest but most fascinating races.

TEXAS: The Cornyn conundrum

Texas always tempts Democrats, but rarely delivers. After featuring its closest presidential race in the 21st century in 2020, with Trump winning the state by a narrow 5.6 percentage points, Texas has shifted farther back into familiar Republican terrain. In 2024, Trump won the Lone Star State by 13.7 percentage points, largely riding off record-high Latino support in southern Texas and holding off Democratic gains in the suburbs surrounding the Dallas and Austin metros.

The wrinkle this cycle is whether Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued Attorney General, can pull off a primary against John Cornyn. After leading in most early primary polling, Paxton has seen his lead crumble after calling for prayer time in schools and reports of adultery — culminating in his recent divorce — circulated.

If Paxton manages to win the primary, which is still a ways away, he will emerge battered and bloody. Democrats will no doubt see blood in the water. Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who overperformed Kamala Harris in his Senate race against Ted Cruz last November, is running again. State Rep. James Tallerico, who caught fire on the internet due to his unique mix of piousness and progressivism, also recently entered the race. A prolonged and brutal Democratic primary could set their sights off the real challenge: facing whichever Republican makes it to the November general. Ideally, one of the two Democrats eventually steps aside and lends their full support to the other — or, it becomes clear which candidate is superior and they are able to win the primary with ease. Time will tell the rest of the story on both sides of the race — and right now, plenty on time remains.

Republicans

NEW JERSEY: Cementing a Republican resurgence?

Perhaps the most intriguing under-the-rader result in 2024 was that of New Jersey: Kamala Harris only won the Garden State by 5.9 percentage points, a whopping 10 point shift right from 2020.

Incumbent Senator Cory Booker (D), first elected in 2013, has officially filed for re-election to a third full term in 2026. While he is undoubtedly a charismatic politician, and has performed well in his previous elections, he is clearly a man with ambitions for higher office. In the past half-decade, he has become more and more of a national figure, culminating in his record-breaking quasi-filibuster speech in protest of the Trump administration’s aggressive dismantling of federal programs. When politicians focus on elevating their national profile, it tends to hurt their image among their constituency (see: Beto O’Rourke). This isn’t always true, but it’s worth noting.

How Republicans perform in the upcoming gubernatorial election in November — four years after Republican state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli came within 3.2 percentage points of knocking off incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in what would’ve been one of the greatest upsets of the 21st century — will play a large role in determining how seriously Republicans take next year’s Senate race. Ciattarelli is running again, this time against Democratic NJ-11 Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former naval and federal officer. Sherrill leads most of the polling aggregates by around 8 percentage points, but it wouldn’t be difficult to envision a reality where Sherrill wins by less than 5. If this is the case, I wouldn’t be surprised if national Republicans started paying more attention to New Jersey. While no serious candidates have announced a Senate run yet, there are a couple prospective Republicans who could make it a serious contest. While NJ-07 Rep. Tom Kean has announced he is running for reelection in his current seat, I wouldn’t be surprised if he switches races following an unexpectedly close result in November. Similarly, I could also see Ciattarelli jumping into the Senate race if he once again comes edges to victory in November.

VIRGINIA: A recurring, elusive target

Virginia is a similar story to that of New Jersey: states with large suburban, affluent, highly-educated populations which shifted left during the first Trump term but returned to more conservative habits during the Biden administration. Coincidentally, the Old Dominion will also feature a gubernatorial election this November, following Republican businessman and current Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s stunning upset in the 2021 gubernatorial election four years prior. Because of Virginia’s unique constitution, Youngkin cannot seek a consecutive second term; running largely as his successor is Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, who has run into considerable controversy after making — and doubling down on — numerous homophobic and transphobic statements. Opposing her is former VA-07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a moderate Democrat during her time in the House. Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial campaign offers a window into the strategic ground Democrats intend to hold. Campaigning in rural locales across the Commonwealth—from oyster farms to Appalachian towns—she targeted communities where Trump made gains in 2024. In several rural counties (for example, Nottoway, Powhatan, Amelia, and Louisa), Spanberger had outperformed Biden in 2020 — evidence of her potential to erode GOP margins outside suburban corridors. Yet Republicans such as Earle-Sears are deploying nationalized messaging — framing Democrats as too urban and disconnected — from issues ranging from socialism to rural healthcare closures. Like in New Jersey, I wouldn’t be surprising if Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial election acts as a bellweather for 2026 and determines just how much Republican invest in the Old Dominion.

As the Commonwealth of Virginia gears up for the 2026 U.S. Senate race, the political currents are both familiar and evolving. Incumbent Senator Mark Warner, a seasoned Democrat serving since 2009, is officially seeking a fourth term, drawing on his reputation as a pragmatic centrist in a state that has steadily trended blue over the past two cycles. His expected campaign will be tested by both demographic transformations and strategic GOP maneuvers aiming at a narrow opening.

Virginia in 2024 revealed just how volatile suburban dynamics have become. While Vice President Kamala Harris won the state with 51.8% of the vote — down from Biden’s 10 point margin of victory in 2020 — the battle lines shifted noticeably in key suburbs. The results in Loudon County were among the earliest indicators on November 5th, 2024, of a Republican resurgence in the suburbs. In fact, the whole of Northern Virginia and the D.C. suburbs lurched right in 2024.

From these shifting suburban trends emerges the strategic opportunity Republicans hope to capitalize on in 2026. The most discussed name on the Republican side of the aisle is that of Glenn Youngkin, whose aforementioned 2021 gubernatorial upset showcased his suburban crossover appeal.

Despite these battleground signs, Virginia’s fundamentals remain friendly to Democrats. In 2024, Senator Tim Kaine easily secured re-election with a 8.9 percentage point advantage over Republican Hung Cao, significantly over performing Kamala Harris’ 5.8 percent margin of victory.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Building on a strong 2024

Whether New Hampshire’s 2026 Senate race truly qualifies as a sleeper is a matter of opinion. 2024 was by and large a successful year for Granite State Republicans: Trump came within 2.8 percentage points of winning, a significant improvement on his 7 point loss in 2020, and former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte won the open gubernatorial seat with ease — a 9.3 percentage point victory, to be specific — over Democratic nominee Joyce Craig. The stage is set for a dramatic 2026 showdown, but most agree that Democrats are still clear favorites.

When incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement in March 2025, Democrats lost one of their strongest incumbents — someone who in 2020 outperformed Joe Biden by nearly 10 points and consistently carved out crossover appeal that insulated her from New Hampshire’s swing-state volatility. Her departure opens the door for a rare open-seat contest, the kind of race that can scramble traditional partisan lines in a state where voters pride themselves on their independence.

On the Democratic side, the early advantage belongs to NH-01 Rep. Chris Pappas, who declared his candidacy in April. Pappas has built a record of overperformance in the state’s most competitive district, where he won tough reelection fights in years like 2022 that were unfavorable for Democrats nationally. His ability to survive in a swing district gives him credibility as a statewide candidate, especially in a cycle where Democrats desperately need someone who can unite progressives, moderates, and independents. Perhaps most importantly, Pappas benefits from the lack of a messy or toxic primary. With other major figures such as freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander declining to run, the party is largely coalescing around him. That matters in New Hampshire, which holds very late primaries that often leave nominees with little time to recover before the general election. Republicans, meanwhile, are again turning to the Sununu dynasty.

The twist? This time, it’s not Chris.

Popular 4-term Governor Chris Sununu declined to enter the race, his brother, former Senator John Sununu, has stepped forward to reclaim his old seat. It may not be the Sununu Republicans initially hoped for, but the name carries weight in New Hampshire politics, evoking respect from both party loyalists and independent voters who value the family’s decades-long presence in public service. Added to the mix is another name from (relatively) long ago: Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand during his first term, who officially launched his campaign in June 2025. Brown has attempted to frame himself as a conservative outsider with national credentials, but his Massachusetts roots could be a liability in a state that takes its local identity seriously (read my previous article of carpetbagging for a more in-depth look at the phenomenon)

The contest is shaping up as a classic test of dynasty politics versus fresh Democratic overperformance. On one side, Republicans hope the Sununu name will resonate in the absence of the equally prestigious surname Shaheen, giving them a chance to flip a seat Democrats have held since 2008. On the other, Pappas is banking on his track record of surviving tough races and his ability to avoid internal party warfare to present himself as the steady hand for Democrats in a volatile state. Both parties know New Hampshire’s electorate is notoriously fickle, and with Shaheen no longer on the ballot, this race is as wide open as it’s been in more than a decade.