Kansas: At a Crossroads
Subtle shifts offer both signs of hope and significant hurdles for Democrats in historically red state
Kansas has some surprising facets in its political landscape that are worth discussing.
Considered one of the quintessential "Fly Over States, " Kansas is located in the Great Plains region of America, and is predominantly rural, overwhelmingly white, and, as expected, largely Republican and conservative.
However, Kansas stands out from many of its Mountain West and Great Plains neighbors, like the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Nebraska, in several key ways. Its demographics are slightly more favorable to Democrats, make Kansas marginally less conservative than these states and seems to be shifting leftward at a very slow but sure pace.
Demographic Dynamics and Urban Influence
While Kansas remains overwhelmingly white and rural, it does have significant urban centers, the most prominent being Kansas City, Topeka, and Wichita. These cities, along with their surrounding suburbs, are home to more diverse populations and lean more Democratic than the state as a whole.
Similar to trends in Arizona, Georgia, and parts of the Midwest, suburban voters in Kansas — particularly white suburban voters — have been shifting left, a trend spurred by former President Trump's fiery rhetoric and extreme social conservatism.
This trend is evident when examining recent voting patterns. In the 2020 election, Kansas supported Trump by a 15-point margin, a smaller gap than previous Republican wins. For comparison, George W. Bush carried Kansas by 21 points in 2000 and 26 in 2004 - both of which are far greater than just a simple 15-point margin. In 2008, when Barack Obama won the nation in a landslide, he lost the state by around 15%, and in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton lost the state by nearly 21 percentage points as well.
But Biden's 2020 loss by only 15 points signals a subtle but encouraging sign for Democrats.
Diverging Paths: Kansas vs. Missouri
The political shift in Kansas becomes particularly interesting when compared to its neighboring state of Missouri, which seems to be evolving in the opposite direction, moving firmly from a swing state to Republican stronghold in recent decades.
To better understand Kansas’s current political context, let’s look at its recent voting patterns. Kansas supported Trump by a margin of 15 percentage points in 2020, which might seem like a decisive Republican win. However, compared to Kansas’s historical margins for Republican candidates, this 15-point gap suggests a trend that is softening.
For example, Kansas supported George W. Bush by 21 points in 2000 and by 26 points in 2004. Even in 2008, when Barack Obama won the presidency in a national landslide, he lost Kansas by roughly 15 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost Kansas by nearly 21 points. In this context, Biden’s 2020 loss by 15 points signals a subtle yet significant shift toward a less staunchly Republican landscape in Kansas.
Missouri, in contrast, has shifted steadily to the right. Kansas and Missouri share the Kansas City metropolitan area, yet their political paths have diverged. Missouri, once an electoral bellwether that closely mapped to national outcomes, has transitioned into a solidly Republican state.
In 2000, Missouri voted for George W. Bush by a relatively narrow margin and repeated this in 2004. By 2008, John McCain carried Missouri by just 3,000 votes. However, in subsequent elections, Missouri veered more decisively Republican: Mitt Romney won comfortably in 2012, Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016, and then by 16 points in 2020 — helping demonstrate Missouri’s steady transformation from a competitive swing state to a reliably conservative stronghold.
While Missouri has entrenched itself in the Republican camp, Kansas appears to be slowly moderating. Historically, Kansas was one of the most Republican states, often supporting GOP candidates by margins well over 20 points. In 2020, however, Trump’s 15-point win is notable for being comparatively narrower. If Democrats could shift just 5% of the Kansas electorate, they could feasibly reach a 50% share of the vote, a more attainable task than one might assume at first glance.
The challenge for Democrats in Kansas remains substantial, but some subtle demographic shifts and the state’s recent electoral trends suggest that a path to greater competitiveness is not entirely out of reach
Suburban Shifts and Congressional Implications
One major factor in Democrats’ favor is the growth of the state’s largest metropolitan areas, which tend to vote for Democrats by significant margins. Metro areas like Kansas City are large and growing - with increasingly diverse populations, substantial Black and Hispanic communities. This demographic shift has helped created a solid Democratic base within the state’s largest cities.
But the other part of the equation is the growth of Kansas’s suburbs, home to many white voters who tend to be more moderate and less culturally conservative than Kansas’s rural electorate. These suburban voters have shown a greater openness to supporting Democrats, diverging from the state’s traditional rural conservatism.
This trend was evident in Kansas’s Third Congressional District, where Sharice Davids, a Democrat, won her House seat in 2018. Her victory was driven by strong urban support and notable gains in suburban areas that have become increasingly receptive to Democrats in federal elections.
Davids initially won her district by a 3-4% margin, but her support only grew in subsequent elections. In 2020, she was re-elected by a 10-point margin, surpassing her 2018 performance. Davids' win was primarily fueled by, number one, very overwhelming urban support, and also by large overperformances among a suburban populace that had increasingly become more willing to support Democrats in federal elections
This pattern continued in 2022, a year that saw a stronger Republican national environment than in previous cycles. Despite Republican gains elsewhere and a 4.5-point rightward shift on the generic House ballot, Davids increased her margin of victory to over 12 points - an overwhelming margin. Her success came even as Republicans attempted to make her district more competitive through gerrymandering, underscoring the staying power of her coalition.
The leftward shift in Kansas’s Third District owes much to Kansas City and its suburbs, where changing demographics and recent events have impacted voter sentiment. Specifically, the 2022 Dobbs decision, which overturned federal abortion protections, galvanized suburban support for Democrats, especially among white women. Abortion rights enjoy widespread support across the United States, even among a significant portion of Republican voters, and Kansas is no exception. The backlash in suburban Kansas following Dobbs likely fueled increased Democratic support, a trend that shows signs of continuing in the coming years.
Kansas Recent Political Context
As I mentioned, Kansas has been a reliably Republican state for decades, consistently supporting Republican presidential candidates by margins north of 20 points in the 21st century. Even before this, Kansas’s loyalty to the GOP was evident. The last time Kansas voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1964, when it supported Lyndon B. Johnson.
On the Senate level, Kansas has an even longer streak: it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, a nearly 100-year Republican stronghold unmatched by any other state. While there are plenty of states in the country that are currently much more conservative than Kansas, but this record helps show how it has been among the most Republican states in the nation.
Signs of a Democratic Resurgence
Despite its Republican history, recent events hint at traces of a Democratic resurgence in the state.
A key example is the election of Laura Kelly, a Democrat, as governor in 2018. Kelly’s victory was seen as an upset, an against all odds win, fueled largely by backlash against the policies of her Republican predecessor, Sam Brownback.
Brownback’s "Kansas experiment" of slashing major taxes to promote small-government ideals had severe financial consequences for the state. Cuts in essential services, especially in education and the arts, angered many voters, particularly those in suburban areas.
As a result, when Kelly ran against the far-right Republican candidate Chris Kobach, she was really running against the legacy of Sam Brownback. Kelly successfully positioned herself as a departure from Brownback’s legacy, narrowly winning by two points.
Challenges in Kelly’s 2022 Re-election
Kelly’s re-election bid in 2022 posed new challenges. Unlike 2018, she faced state Attorney General Derrick Schmidt, a less polarizing Republican opponent with a low profile. The 2022 election year was also generally favorable to Republicans nationwide, with rural voters strongly mobilized and some members of the Democratic base showing lower enthusiasm due to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration.
Moreover, Kelly no longer had Brownback’s candidacy and unpopular policies as a clear target. Four years had passed since his tenure, and some of the outrage had faded. Yet, to many people’s surprise, Kelly managed to win re-election by a slim two-point margin, in one of the most notable Democratic victories of 2022.
Factors Behind Kelly’s Victory
Several factors contributed to Kelly’s success and are worth exploring.
Although Schmidt was a more conventional candidate than Kobach, he still had weaknesses. He ran a rather sleepy or inactive campaign that focused heavily on divisive social issues, such as transgender rights, and culture war issues, which did not resonate with many mainstream voters. Rather than simply running against Joe Biden and focusing on economic issues like inflation, which could arguably have appealed to a broader audience, Schmidt’s focus on culture war topics likely limited his appeal to fringe factions of the Republican base.
A second factor shaping the political landscape in Kansas at that time was the national environment, which was noticeably more Republican-leaning in 2022 than in 2018. Kansas, like much of the country, saw a surge in Republican support that year. However, this trend was counterbalanced by the Dobbs ruling, which energized Democrats and pro-choice voters nationwide. In Kansas’s suburban areas, particularly among women, the ruling sparked significant opposition to the Republican stance on abortion, which helped balance out some of the pro-Republican sentiment generated by economic discontent.
Finally, while it was assumed that Kelly couldn’t rely on anti-Brownback sentiment as she had in 2018, the shadow of his policies still loomed. Many voters, particularly in suburban and urban areas, remembered the devastating impact of policies implemented under Brownback’s tenure, and Kelly’s campaign effectively leveraged this memory to paint her Republican opponent as a risk for the state’s future stability.
Implications for Future Democratic Success
Kelly’s victories paint a potentially hopeful picture for Democrats in the state and suggest a possible roadmap for Democrats aiming to compete in Kansas. A closer look at her campaigns could provide valuable insights into how Democrats might overcome the state’s Republican lean. Key strategies include capitalizing on urban and suburban discontent with Republican policies, emphasizing issues like abortion rights that resonate with moderates, and maintaining a clear contrast with past GOP administrations viewed as harmful to the state’s well-being.
While Kansas remains a challenging state for Democrats, recent elections indicate that with the right circumstances and strategy, Democratic candidates can make races competitive enough to attract national attention and funding.
Obstacles to Democratic Progress
While this may paint a rosy picture for Democrats’ prospects in Kansas, looking at both the successes and challenges faced by Democrats in recent elections might dampen the hope of a quick resurgence in the state. While some races offer hope for a Democratic resurgence, others reveal the obstacles that remain.
In the 2020 Senate election, Democratic hopes were high for state senator Barbara Bollier, a former Republican who had switched to the Democratic Party in the Trump era. Bollier ran a fierce, well-funded campaign, bolstered by substantial cash and favorable polling, which showed her within the margin of error against Republican Congressman Roger Marshall.
It’s easy to see why analysts crafted this narrative around a Bollier win: many speculated that Bollier's appeal to suburban voters, many of whom had turned against Republicans in the Trump era, could give her an edge. However, despite overperforming Joe Biden’s statewide margin by a couple of points, Bollier ultimately lost by a 12-point margin. Marshall’s comfortable victory highlighted the ongoing Republican dominance in Kansas Senate races and dashed hopes that Kansas was becoming a true battleground state.
Similarly, in that same election, Republican incumbent Jerry Moran won decisively, capturing nearly 60% of the vote against a low-profile Democratic opponent who lacked the funding and visibility to mount a strong challenge.
Together, these races demonstrate that the path for Democrats in Kansas is more challenging than it may initially appear. Bollier’s moderate positions and appeal to suburban voters were not enough to overcome Kansas’s entrenched Republican support, and suggests that additional favorable circumstances—such as an unpopular opponent or a national environment that galvanized Democratic turnout—may be necessary for Democrats to succeed in statewide races.
Governor Laura Kelly, for example, benefitted from these types of favorable circumstances in her initial 2018 election, running during a Democratic midterm in the Trump era. Unlike Bollier, Kelly was not tied to a national Democratic presidential candidate, allowing her to cast a more independent stance. This points to the idea that Democrats may have better chances in midterm elections, which tend to be more insulated from presidential influence. If Kansas’s partisan composition remains fairly stable, future midterms might offer Democrats the best opportunity to compete seriously for statewide office.
Looking ahead to 2024, a highly polarized election is anticipated, making a Democratic win in Kansas challenging. However, if the political environment in 2026 mirrors that of previous midterms, Democrats could potentially make gains, especially if candidates like Sharice Davids or even Laura Kelly decide to run.
In Kansas, while the pathway to Democratic success is challenging, it is not entirely closed, especially in favorable midterm election cycles - more so than than other deeply conservative Mountain West states, like Missouri, the Dakotas or Wyoming, where there was really no clear path for Democrats whatsoever.