Live Free or Die: The Political Zany-ness of New Hampshire

The Granite State embodies its striking motto in more ways than one. Here, we discuss the unique political geography that creates its perpetually competitive elections.

In our diverse and divided nation, some states are easier than others to define politically. The average Massachusettsan is liberal, Oklahoman is conservative, and Wisconsinite is somewhere in-between.

Time and again, as I’ve tried to categorize New Hampshire—by its history, culture, and demographics—and I’ve been unable to nail down its proper place in the American political landscape.

While my deep ties to New Hampshire may explain my particular fascination with its politics, there is something to be said about the curious ideals of the Granite State. This ideology is unabashedly libertarian—possibly to a fault.

Libertarianism in America has lost its way—its party less influential with each passing year, its support splintering off to both sides of our insurmountable two-party system.

Yet as we look forward to the impending political reset of 2028, New Hampshire gives us hope for a brighter political future, combining the best parts of Democrat and Republican platforms—with a pinch of its own outrageous ideas.

Demographics

With this brief history lesson out of the way, it’s time to recognize the citizens of the Granite State. As of July 1st, 2024, New Hampshire has 1.4 million residents, making it the 41st most populous state. Its largest cities, Manchester and Nashua, are in the state’s southern region and are part of the Greater Boston metropolitan area.

The Granite State’s population grew immensely from 1960 to 1990, nearly doubling, and has seen steady growth in the 35 years since then, which is slightly below the national rate but exceeding all other New England states. New Hampshire is expected to reach a peak population of 1.5 million people in 2040.

Like its neighbors Vermont and Maine, New Hampshire’s population is racially homogenous and significantly older than the national average—90% of residents are white. Interestingly, just 40.36% of New Hampshire residents were actually born in the state—36% of them were born in neighboring Massachusetts.

Education and Wealth

New Hampshirites are considerably more educated than the average American—94% and 41% of the population over the age of 25 have received high school and college diplomas, respectively—and wealthier; the median household income is $96,838, the 4th highest of any state. Perhaps because of the last several statistics, New Hampshire also boasts the lowest poverty rate in the nation: 7.42%—almost half the national level.

Religiosity

The Unchurched Belt—a spoof of the Bible Belt—describes areas of the country with low church attendance. New Hampshire, where 66% of adults say they never or seldom attend church or religious services, lands itself in the direct center of one of these regions, sandwiched between Vermont and Maine—the two other states with the highest share of unreligious adults.

While 36% of New Hampshire residents are unaffiliated with a religious group, the remainder are, predictably, overwhelmingly Christian. 26%, 16%, and 13% of residents are Catholic, Evangelical, and Mainline Protestant, respectively, with a mere 5% practicing non-Christian faiths.

The absence of religious fervor among New Hampshirites may help explain their progressive stance on social issues. New Hampshire was the 5th state to legalize same sex marriage, all the way back in 2010—beating out more liberal states like New York, California, and Washington.

Governance

At the time of writing, New Hampshire’s state government has a Republican trifecta—control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature, along with the offices of secretary of state and attorney general. The GOP has held control of the governorship since 2017 and the House and Senate since 2021. Historically, the state government has had a Republican tilt; since 1992 there have been 14 years of Republican trifectas, compared to only 4 years for the Democrats.

Governor

Governor Kelly Ayotte was first elected this past November, succeeding the popular 4-term Republican Chris Sununu, of the famed Sununu political dynasty. Ayotte handily defeated Democrat mayor of Manchester Joyce Craig by 9.3 points, significantly outperforming the polls—where she averaged a 2.5-point lead—and Donald Trump, who lost New Hampshire by 2.8 points. Ayotte had previously served one term in the senate, but lost reelection in 2016 to former Democrat governor Maggie Hassan by a mere 0.15 points, just 1,017 votes.

To place a check on the governor’s power, New Hampshire uniquely employs an Executive Council—known colloquially as the Governor’s Council—comprised of five members who each represent a district of about 275,500 residents and are elected for an unlimited number of two-year terms.

With the power to overrule pardons and executive branch nominations issued by the Governor, as well as to approve the state budget and military and judicial appointments, the Council has the final say on most executive branch duties. It is currently split 4-1 in favor of Republicans, thus giving Governor Ayotte a rubber stamp of approval on the bulk of her initiatives.

House of Representatives

New Hampshire has, by far, the most unique House of Representatives in the nation. The state of 1.4 million people has a lower chamber with a whopping 400 representatives—one per 3,448 residents. For comparison, Pennsylvania is runner-up with 203 reps—one per 64,098 residents—and California holds the title of most constituents per rep at 494,755.

This gives the miniature New England state the astonishing distinction of having the third-largest elected legislative body in the English-speaking world, after the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.K. House of Commons. To field such a vast body, representatives are paid just $100 dollars a year—a number in place since 1889—which makes it effectively a volunteer legislature.

In the 2024 election, Republicans increased their control over the lower chamber, which they had held onto in 2022 by a single seat (201 to 199). They flipped 21 districts, expanding their modest majority and continuing GOP control of the house into its third legislative session.

Senate

New Hampshire’s Senate more closely resembles those of other states its size, with 24 members—one per 57,462 residents. In last November’s election, Republicans grew their already sizable control of the state senate—from 14 to 16 seats—giving them a veto-proof supermajority.

One of the two seats the Republicans flipped belonged to Democrat Donna Soucy, the Minority Leader, who represented the 18th District. This was a huge blow to the Democrats—who were hopeful of chipping away at the GOP’s majority—and safely puts the upper chamber in GOP control for the foreseeable future.

Congress

While New Hampshirites prefer a Republican-run state government, they opt for a Democratic Congress. It has been more than a decade since a Republican has won a house race in the Granite state, and more than 14 years since one has won a senate race—Kelly Ayotte all the way back in 2010. While Democrats have a clear edge in House and Senate races in New Hampshire, the state’s two aging Democrat senators could threaten to upheave this.

1st Congressional District

Democrat Chris Pappas has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District—comprising the southeastern portion of the state, including the coast, Manchester, and its suburbs—since 2019. Pappas, a former state representative and executive councilman, succeeded Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who declined to run for reelection, and handily beat former South Hampton Police Chief Republican Eddie Edwards in 2018 by 8.6 points. In a show of New Hampshire’s social progressivism, Pappas is the first openly gay man to represent the state in Congress.

Until recently, the 1st District has been one of the most competitive in the nation, changing parties in all but one election from 2006 to 2016. The district bounced from Republican Jeb Bradley to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in 2006, to Republican Frank Guita in 2010, back to Shea-Porter in 2012, again to Guinta in 2014, and finally back to Shea-Porter in 2016.

While Donald Trump carried the district—47% to 46%—in 2016, Biden easily flipped it blue 4 years later—by 6 points. Trump cut into this margin this past November but still lost the district to Harris by just under 2 points.

2nd Congressional District

New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District covers the Connecticut River Valley in the west, extends to Canada in the north, and includes Nashua and the state capital, Concord, in the south. In November, residents elected Democrat Maggie Goodlander—the wife of Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan—to represent the district, replacing retiring six-term Democrat Annie Kuster. Goodlander delivered a 5-point victory against Republican Lily Williams, an impressive feat for a non-incumbent.

Slightly more liberal than its sister to the east, Democrats have won the 2nd district in all but one election since 2006, with the exception being the landmark Republican victory in the 2010 midterms. It was the 2nd that kept New Hampshire blue in 2016—Hillary Clinton carried it 48% to 45%—while the 1st, as you might remember, just barely went for Trump.

Swing State Status

The true modern era of New Hampshire presidential politics, when the Granite State gained its status as reliably purple, began in 1992. Prior to this, New Hampshire was a Republican stronghold from the birth of the party in 1856—excluding the victories of Democrats Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, FDR in 1936, 1940, and 1944, and LBJ in 1964.

In the election of 1988, Vice President George H.W. Bush carried on where President Reagan left off, defeating Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis in New Hampshire with a commanding 62.5% of the vote. Not a single county in the state went blue, which is especially impressive considering even Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower lost one county in the state during his first election in 1952—Hillsborough, the home of Manchester.

The election of 1992 saw an unprecedented three-way race between President George H.W. Bush, Democratic Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton, and billionaire businessman Ross Perot. Perot’s grassroots campaign, which garnered support across the nation, focused on balancing the budget and protecting American industry, with a sheen of pragmatic populism that appealed to working class voters. In a fiscally conservative, business-friendly state like New Hampshire, this spelled trouble for the incumbent Bush.

That November, Clinton edged out Bush 38.9% to 37.7%, while Perot finished a distant third with a nonetheless respectable 22.6% of the vote. While this could have been a fluke, it was almost certainly Perot’s candidacy that sunk Bush in the state—as it turned out, it was the metaphorical straw that broke the camel’s back.

The Fall

Beginning in the 1980s, Republicans in New Hampshire faced several unfavorable conditions, the harshest being changing demographics. As you may remember from earlier, most New Hampshirites weren’t born in the state; 36% were originally from Massachusetts. During the 1970s and 80s, New Hampshire experienced the most significant population growth in its history, with well over 150,000 of these new residents since 1980 being former Bay Staters. These Massachusetts transplants brought their more liberal politics with them to the Granite State, greatly contributing to the Democratic victories of 1990s.

Another detrimental shift that occurred was in the Republican Party platform, one that placed social issues front and center. The “Moral Majority” movement within the Republican Party, which began in the late 1970s, may have helped Ronald Reagan wrestle evangelical voters in the South away from Jimmy Carter, but in New Hampshire, it won him no supporters.

The low religiosity—and by extension, socially progressive views—of New Hampshire voters did not align with the Republican Party’s increased emphasis on issues like abortion, school prayer, and family values. As the GOP platform of the 1980s and 90s trailed away from placing economic policies front and center, New Hampshire voters increasingly turned elsewhere, notably to Ross Perot and Bill Clinton.

Republican No More

New Hampshire embodies the political shift that has occurred since the 2016 election—a shift that, while favorable to Republicans nationally, doesn’t apply universally, including in the Granite State. While Donald Trump was propelled to his first victory almost entirely by white voters, educated and uneducated, this coalition shrank considerably in his two following races.

Republicans made considerable inroads with minority groups who were previously considered the base of the Democratic Party. This allowed Trump to trounce Kamala Harris in the swing states without his old level of support from white Americans. The former President won 55% of Latino men—a net improvement of 33 points from 2020—and lost Black men to Harris by 56 points, up significantly from a 60-point loss to Biden and 69-point loss to Clinton.

This is all well and good for the GOP in ethnically diverse battleground states like Florida, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona—and to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, in New Hampshire, with its well-educated, white electorate, this spells trouble.

2016

Trump won white voters with a college degree by 3 points—a significant decline from Mitt Romney’s 14-point margin four years prior. However, this was still enough to put him over the finish line in the Rust Belt. It wasn’t white voters with college degrees that won Trump states Romney had lost; it was the non-college vote that made the difference. Trump won white voters with no college degree by a remarkable 37 points, compared to Romney’s 26-point margin with this group.

Trump lost New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton by 0.37 points—2,736 votes—the narrowest margin of the election besides Michigan. This was a 5.21-point improvement on Mitt Romney’s numbers in 2012 and marked the best performance for a Republican in the state since George Bush in 2000.

2020

This time, amid a global pandemic, Joe Biden won white voters with a college degree by 3 points—a considerable gain for the Democrats. White voters without college degrees held strong for Trump, favoring him by 35 points, slightly below 2016 levels.

Unlike four years prior, election night in New Hampshire was not a nail biter. Biden carried the state by 7.35 points—59,277 votes—the best showing for a Democrat since Barack Obama in 2008.

2024

Last fall, in what was initially his rematch with Joe Biden—and later, Vice President Kamala Harris—Donald Trump was back with a vengeance.

All of Trump’s controversies since the last election: the “Big Lie,” January 6th, being found liable for rape, and a felony hush money conviction, to name just the most memorable—may have galvanized his MAGA base but did little to change the trajectory of New Hampshire’s socially liberal, old-school fiscally conservative electorate.

Of course, just like in every county of every state in the nation, it all came down to one or two big issues: inflation and the border—and in the Granite State it was no different. This amounted to an over-performance compared to 2020, but still a considerable decline from the former President’s 2016 numbers.

Harris won New Hampshire with a slim majority—50.65% of the electorate—while Trump netted 47.87%, a deficit of 2.72 points, or some 22,965 votes. This gave the Granite State the distinction of being the lightest blue state of this election cycle—the closest to falling to Trump.

We constantly were bombarded with updates on polling from the swingy seven: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all throughout last fall. But if one other state could have been added to the bunch—rounding it out as the not-so-catchy Erratic Eight—it would’ve been New Hampshire.

Senate 2026

As I hinted at earlier, the disconnect between a GOP-dominated state government, led until recently by the heir to a political dynasty treated like royalty—and a fiercely blue congressional delegation could come to a head, if one figure threatened to make a leap between the two.

This now appears to be becoming true after it was reported in early September that John Sununu, former governor Chris Sununu’s elder brother, and a former Senator himself, is exploring a run to reclaim his old seat—which he lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen, who also served as Governor from 1997 to 2003, is quickly approaching 80 and announced that she is not seeking a fourth term.

This leaves Democrats in a precarious position: a popular senator retiring in a state that barely went for Kamala Harris last year—and with an equally, if not more, popular Republican family ready to snatch the seat.

Democratic Representative George Pappas has already announced his candidacy to fill the open seat. However, his relatively short tenure in Congress and—perhaps more consequentially—his lack of statewide name recognition could give Sununu a key edge in the race, if he does decide to run.

Of course, only time will tell whether the GOP will go the distance, defying a decade’s worth of voting trends. Needless to say, this will be a closely watched race in the Midterms—potentially giving Senate Republicans a much-needed buffer against expected losses elsewhere.

But if there was any state where an anomaly like this could happen, it’s the always eccentric, proudly independent Granite State.