Part 2: Alaska, Beyond Red and Blue

A closer look at how Alaska’s future political outlook and democratic strategy

Outlook for Alaska in the 2024 Presidential and House Races

Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Alaska’s political future is full of uncertainties. Many analysts predict that Trump will likely carry Alaska, but the margin remains in question. While Trump’s involvement in the January 6th insurrection and his attempts to deny the 2020 election results have likely decreased his appeal among Alaska’s moderate-leaning electorate, Biden’s popularity in the state remains low, impacted by both policy and perception issues that have distanced him from many Alaskans. Despite Trump’s controversies, Biden’s unpopularity may lead Alaska to vote for Trump by a slightly wider margin in 2024 than in 2020.

The 2024 House Race: Peltola’s Cross-Party Appeal

In Alaska’s at-large House race, Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola presents a different dynamic. Peltola has demonstrated strong cross-party appeal, winning both the August 2022 special election - which many thought she would lose - and the November 2022 general election, defeating Sarah Palin by nearly 10 points. Her performance far outpaced Biden’s results in Alaska in 2020 by almost 20 points, underscoring her popularity among moderate Republicans and independents. With her proven ability to attract voters across the political spectrum, Peltola stands a good chance of retaining her seat even if Biden performs poorly in Alaska, potentially losing by 12 or 13 points. Peltola’s broad appeal and recent victories position her well for the 2024 House race.

Polling Challenges and Democratic Investment in Alaska

Predicting election outcomes in Alaska is uniquely challenging due to the state’s vast, sparsely populated, and hard-to-poll geography. Even in more centralized states like Wisconsin or Michigan, polling can be difficult, but Alaska’s remoteness makes reliable polling data exceptionally rare. Pollsters often issue disclaimers with Alaska polls, cautioning that results may vary widely. This lack of reliable polling data may discourage Democrats from investing heavily in Alaska, as they may prioritize states with clearer polling indicators of competitiveness. However, based on her track record, Peltola remains a strong candidate with a fair chance of holding her seat in 2024.

Alaska’s Political Landscape in the 2026 Midterm Election

Senator Dan Sullivan’s Re-Election Prospects

The 2026 midterm elections could be pivotal for Alaska. Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who will be up for re-election, has a relatively low national profile but is known in Alaska for his consistent, conservative positions. Unlike more high-profile Republicans like Ted Cruz or Mitch McConnell, Sullivan has maintained a quiet presence nationally, which has worked to his advantage in Alaska. Alaskan voters, who appreciate pragmatic and low-profile representation, have responded positively to his focus on local issues, such as economic development, infrastructure improvements, and strong advocacy for energy initiatives like the expansion of oil and gas pipelines. Sullivan’s policies align well with the state’s values, and his conservative, dependable approach has helped him build a solid base of support.

Sullivan’s 2020 Victory Against Independent Al Gross

In 2020, Senator Dan Sullivan solidified his standing among Alaska voters by winning re-election against independent candidate Al Gross, defeating him by nearly 13 points. While Gross’s campaign as an independent suggested potential crossover appeal, his lack of significant political experience and a detailed policy agenda limited his effectiveness as a challenger. Sullivan’s victory, especially by such a substantial margin, demonstrated his strong base in Alaska and reinforced his reputation as a dependable, low-profile conservative whose focus resonates with Alaskans.

Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, Sullivan’s electoral strength may again give him an advantage, especially if Biden is serving a second term. Historically, presidents face significant setbacks in their second midterm—a phenomenon known as the “six-year itch.” If Biden is re-elected, the 2026 environment will likely favor Republicans, further bolstering Sullivan’s chances. However, if Trump wins in 2024, the political landscape may shift. Trump’s first midterm in 2018 was highly favorable to Democrats, and a similar Democratic wave could occur in 2026 if Trump is again in office.

Under these conditions, Sullivan’s re-election could become more competitive, especially if Mary Peltola, assuming she wins re-election to the House in 2024, decides to challenge him for the Senate. Peltola, with her demonstrated appeal across party lines and her ability to attract moderate Republicans and independents, could make the race more challenging for Sullivan, particularly if the national environment favors Democrats. However, Sullivan’s established reputation, deep ties to local issues, and solid support among Alaska’s Republican-leaning electorate still likely make him the favorite, even in a Democratic-leaning midterm.

Democratic Overperformance in the 2022 Midterms and Future Implications

Breaking the Trend: Democrats’ Unexpected Success in 2022

The 2022 midterms saw unexpectedly strong performances from Democrats, defying the historical trend of midterm losses for the president’s party. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, which reversed Roe v. Wade, and concerns about GOP extremism, contributed to Democratic successes in many states. Democrats retained Senate seats in challenging races and limited losses in the House. Alaska’s majority pro-choice electorate and its resistance to extreme partisanship suggest that a similar environment could benefit Democrats in the 2026 midterms. However, it remains to be seen whether the dynamics that drove Democratic success in 2022 will persist in future cycles.

Impact of a Potential Trump Presidency on the 2026 Midterms

If Trump wins in 2024, his second midterm could be challenging for Republicans, similar to his first midterm in 2018. In that case, Sullivan’s re-election could become competitive, especially if Mary Peltola - assuming she wins re-election to the House in 2024 - decides to challenge him for the Senate. Given her appeal across party lines, Peltola could make Sullivan’s race closer, particularly if the national environment favors Democrats. However, Sullivan’s strong base in Alaska and the state’s Republican lean still make him the likely favorite, even in a Democratic-leaning year.

A 2028 Senate Opportunity: Peltola’s Potential Path to Statewide Victory

Speculation Around Lisa Murkowski’s Potential Retirement

If Mary Peltola chooses not to challenge Sullivan in 2026, she may look to the 2028 Senate race. Many believe Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, a close friend and ally of Peltola despite their different parties, may retire by 2028. Murkowski and Peltola share a mutual respect and bipartisan relationship, and some suggest Murkowski may step aside to create an opportunity for Peltola. Should Murkowski retire, Peltola would have a favorable pathway to the Senate, especially given her appeal to moderates and independents.

Potential Opponents in 2028

While Governor Mike Dunleavy could consider a Senate run in 2028, his age and potential absence from office for several years may weaken his standing. Facing a lesser-known or more extreme Republican, Peltola would likely have an advantage, positioning her well to capture moderate voters and independents. With her bipartisan appeal and established support, Peltola would be a strong contender in a potential 2028 Senate race.

Campaigning in Alaska: Challenges for Democrats

Geographic Isolation and Limited Electoral Value

A major hurdle for Democrats in Alaska is the state’s geographic isolation and limited electoral value. Alaska’s three electoral votes and remote location often lead national campaigns to overlook it in favor of more accessible swing states. For national Democratic candidates, devoting time and resources to Alaska may not seem justifiable, especially when swing states with larger electoral vote counts demand attention. Biden, for example, faces tough odds in 2024, making Alaska a lower priority. This strategic neglect can lead to a cycle of missed opportunities for Democrats, as Republicans continue to solidify their influence in the state.

Alaska’s Democratic Party: A Unique Example of Resilience

Despite the national Democratic Party’s limited focus on Alaska, the state’s Democratic Party remains active and effective. Unlike Democratic organizations in solidly red states like Alabama or Oklahoma, which have largely disengaged, Alaska’s Democratic Party has maintained a robust infrastructure and commitment to running competitive candidates. They have supported viable contenders in most major races, from statewide campaigns to local offices, and have achieved notable successes, including Peltola’s election and, in past cycles, coalition majorities in the state legislature by partnering with moderate Republicans and independents. While national campaigns may be hesitant to commit resources to Alaska, the state’s Democratic Party is a unique example of a minority party that continues to make headway in an otherwise conservative landscape.

Path Forward for Alaska Democrats: Building Local Strength

For Alaska Democrats, focusing on local-level victories will be essential to building a sustainable, long-term strategy.

Anchorage: A New Battleground for Democrats

Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city, represents a promising target for Alaska Democrats. Recently, an independent candidate with Democratic alignment won the mayoral race against a far-right incumbent, marking a significant shift in Anchorage, which has historically leaned Republican. Anchorage has traditionally served as a reliable source of Republican support, so its slow shift toward Democratic or independent-leaning candidates could suggest a broader change in voter sentiment. To capitalize on this trend, Alaska Democrats should prioritize securing city council seats, state legislature positions, and other local offices in Anchorage and surrounding areas.

Investing in Local Infrastructure and Preparing for Statewide Success

Building a strong Democratic presence in local offices can create a foundation for future statewide competitiveness. By maintaining an active local infrastructure and focusing on incremental victories in areas like Anchorage, Democrats can position themselves to compete more effectively in statewide races. While Republicans currently hold a stronger institutional advantage, Alaska’s unique blend of moderate voters and resistance to extreme partisanship offers Democrats an opportunity for gradual progress. With sustained focus on local elections and coalition-building strategies, Democrats can lay the groundwork for a more competitive political environment in Alaska, one that may eventually support Democratic statewide victories.

Long-Term Goals: Turning Alaska Blue

As demographic changes and urbanization influence Alaska’s political landscape, Democrats may see increasing competitiveness in future elections. Alaska Democrats have shown resilience, adaptability, and success in recent local races, making slow but steady progress. With continued investment in local offices, sustained outreach, and a focus on coalition-building, Democrats may increase their chances of achieving statewide success in the long term. While Alaska’s current Republican lean remains an obstacle, the groundwork being laid today may eventually position Alaska as a more competitive, purple state that could even lean blue in the years ahead.

Continue to Part 3: