FORECASTS FOR SENATE 2026 PART 4: LIKELY FOR REPUBLICANS
Now, let's talk about the likely states for Republicans.
IOWA
I would start off with Iowa, which is teetering on the edge between likely and a safe state for Republicans.
Two-term Republican Joni Ernst, like I mentioned before, was re-elected in 2020 by 6 points.
Not a great showing, but considering 2020 was a relatively Democratic year, and it's unlikely that she'll decrease in her electoral strength, considering she's more ingrained with Iowans now than she was 6 years ago.
Ernst's had time to really make herself a household name, one that more Iowans will just consider voting for when they hit the poll booth.
It will be a harder sell for a Democrat to win that race, especially considering Iowa as a whole has experienced a massive shift rightward, even since the 2010s.
In 2022, Chuck Grassley, the nearly 90-year-old incumbent, won by nearly 15 points, and that was his worst showing.
Simply, those two things go far to demonstrate how it would take something very impactful for a Republican to lose a race in Iowa.
Yet, it is possible, if there is a very strong Democratic candidate.
ALASKA
The other Republican likely state in 2026 is Alaska.
Now, Alaska is an interesting case.
It has been a Republican-winning state for as long as it's been a state, since the 1960s.
It hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson won essentially every state in the Union outside of the Deep South.
But Alaska has gotten bluer.
In 2020, Donald Trump only won the state by 10 points, after Republican presidential victories nearly in the twenties in the years prior.
So, Alaska is getting bluer.
Independent Bill Walker had served as the Alaskan governor, more resembling a Democrat than a Republican, and the state's at-large congressional seat, so essentially a statewide election, went blue in 2022, in the special election to replace dean of the house, Don Young, when he died, unfortunately.
Democrat Mary Peltola won the ensuing special election, and what was considered a very shocking upset, and she successfully won the regular election in November '22, garnering a nearly 10-point victory over Republican Sarah Palin in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
Now, Peltola has proven to be exceptionally popular, and if she was to enter the Senate race, she would look like a very competitive candidate, if not the favorite.
The incumbent Republican in Alaska is Dan Sullivan.
In 2020, Democrats, like other states, seriously contested his seat.
They gave it a good shot by nominating independent candidate Al Gross. Yet, Al Gross lost by nearly 13 points, despite polls showing a much closer race.
Now, polls in Alaska are known to be very unreliable, since Alaska is so large in landmass and so sparsely populated. It's a very difficult state to poll reliably.
So, it's hard to trust what early polling of the race we have in 2026 right now, that might show a Peltola victory, or that might show her being insanely popular.
So, really, it seems like Alaska's more likely than not going to go to the Republicans, if Mary Peltola does not run. I would consider Alaska to be a safe Republican state. If she does run, and Dan Sullivan runs for reelection, I would consider that race to be leans Republican, for the time being.
I think she has a real shot at winning that race.
But ultimately, like, gun to my head, I would assume that Dan Sullivan would be able to eke out a victory.
He's a fairly uncontroversial Republican. He doesn't have a very big national profile, which may seem detrimental to his chances, but in reality, that just means his constituents probably have a higher opinion of him, and he's more familiar back home in the Last Frontier state.
The final possibility is that Peltola runs, and then Dan Sullivan retires.
Now, Dan Sullivan, he's not an old guy.
He is around 60 years old right now, and he's only been serving since 2015. I could, I don't think it's likely he retires. Sullivan hasn't said much about it, and, but on the slight chance that he does retire, and Peltola runs, I think that race might even be in toss-up territory. Peltola was a very strong candidate.
There's a potential that a really weak Republican, like Sarah Palin, runs, or Nick Begich, both of which had already been defeated by her in the House election two times.
If Peltola was up against either of them, for sure, I see her winning that race in Alaska.
But overall, considering all those possibilities, I peg that as likely Republican for now.
TEXAS
The final likely Republican state is Texas.
Now, if you go back to 2020, I mentioned that Democrats were feeling very optimistic about their chances in that state as a whole, after Beto O'Rourke's shockingly close loss in 2018 to Ted Cruz, losing by under three points.
And yet, the Democrat in 2020, MJ Hegar, lost to John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican senator, by nearly 10 points.
Now, Cornyn was a much stronger incumbent than Ted Cruz was, and MJ Hegar, and probably less strong than Beto O'Rourke. But a 10-point victory in Texas, especially considering that John Cornyn is likely to be running, and be the nominee in 2026, it all paints a very pessimistic picture for Democrats in Texas.
It has been shifting left in the 21st century.
Joe Biden's 5.6% loss in 2020 represents the best showing for a Democrat in that state in quite a while, probably since Bill Clinton.
Now, just because a Democrat is shifting left, and because I ultimately think it will eventually tilt into the Democratic column, I don't think that will occur in 2026, barring any really extraneous circumstances, like if Cornyn retires, and he's replaced by just an abhorrent Republican candidate.
There are many, but it's unlikely there's one who is just terrible enough to cause Republicans that race, and Democrats would need a very strong candidate likewise to win that race.
Beto O'Rourke has arguably tarnished a lot of his goodwill with Texans after running for president in 2020 and staking a lot of positions, like on things like guns, which are very unpopular with Texans back home.
And that really was all shown when he ran for governor of Texas in 2022. O'Rourke lost by over 10 points to incumbent Greg Abbott, despite many controversies in the Republican governor's second term, which Beto O'Rourke attempted to use to his advantage but ultimately failed.
Now, all of this, in my opinion, goes to show that in 2026, it would really take somewhat of a miracle, an electoral miracle, for a Democrat to finally win a Senate seat in Texas.
That hasn't happened since, I believe, the 1980s, with Lloyd Bentsen.
Now, that wraps up the likely Republican states.
Click to read Senate 2026: Part 5
