FORECASTS FOR SENATE 2026 PART : LEANS REPUBLICAN STATES
MAINE
Let's talk about the lean Republican states. I would put two states in this column, those being Maine and North Carolina.
Now, if you remember back to 2020, Susan Collins successfully retained her seat by a very large margin, nearly nine points, while Joe Biden won that same state by nine points himself - meaning he overperformed Donald Trump by around 18 points, which is an incredible showing, one that you don't really see that often in modern political times, where most everything is extremely polarized and partisan.
I think if Susan Collins runs for reelection, then she will very likely win another term. I would put Maine in the likely Republican column if she does run for reelection.
She has served; she is serving her fifth term currently.
Collins has served since 1997, and is one of the longest-serving congresswoman - so it’s possible that she’s therefore less likely to run for reelection. However, she has filed paperwork to fundraise for another campaign, which does suggest that she is planning to run again.
However, assuming Collins retires, and I would immediately put Maine in the lean Democratic column, or possibly even the likely Democratic column, because Joe Biden is likely to win the state by over five points, at the very least. And in 2026, it would take a real Republican wave to successfully prevent Democrats from winning the Senate election.
In 2022, Maine Republicans faced a real setback.
Past Governor Paul LePage lost to incumbent Democrat Janet Mills by nearly 14 points, which is a far cry from his earlier victories earlier in the 21st century.
In 2026, it's hard to conjure up another strong Republican currently in the political stratosphere.
However, there are a few strong Democrats in the waiting, such as Jared Golden, who is holding the most Republican seat to be represented by a Democrat in the House, Maine's second district, which voted for Trump by around seven points.
Golden's held that seat three times for the Democrats, and he would arguably be Democrats' strongest candidate.
Democrats’ representative in Maine's First District, Chellie Pingree, would also be a promising candidate for Democrats.
Republicans simply do not have much of a bench at the current moment, so if Collins were to retire, and with either one of these Democrats running, it would really seem that Democrats have a firm advantage in that race.
Now, there is also the possibility that Susan Collins runs, and Jared Golden or Chellie Pingree, but more Golden, runs, and that race, I would consider to be fairly evenly matched, maybe with a slight advantage going towards Collins, who has performed, has been more of an overperformer than Golden, relatively speaking.
However, that race would really be neck and neck, and I, you'd need more polling data and you need to be in closer proximity to the election than we are now to really have a firmer analysis of how that race is going to turn out.
But for now, assuming that Collins is likely to run, Maine is going to be at leans Republican, despite it being a fairly Democratic state at the presidential level.
NORTH CAROLINA
The second and final leans Republican state is North Carolina.
North Carolina has been an elusive target and a painful one for Democrats since their victory in 2008, in the Senate and presidential elections.
Democrats haven't won either of those elections since that point, despite their best efforts and despite those elections being very close.
Republicans have not won a presidential election in North Carolina by over five points since 2008, and in 2020, Donald Trump was only able to even win it by two points.
The last Democrat to serve as a senator in North Carolina was Kay Hagan, who had won in 2008 by around a 9-point margin against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.
However, Dole lost her seat in 2014 to current Senator Thom Tillis by a very small margin, but it was still a loss nonetheless.
And since that point, Democrats haven't controlled a single one of North Carolina's Senate seats.
And this all goes to show that North Carolina has a very small but persistent red tilt, and it is being hotly contested in 2024, as it should be, by both parties.
But as most of the polling shows, and as I would personally predict, I believe North Carolina will probably stay in the Republican column in 2024, and it would suggest that in 2026, North Carolina is also going to remain Republican.
Thom Tillis being a fairly uncontroversial conservative, but not extremist, Republican.
However, there are a couple of ifs that I'd like to talk about, is mostly speculation, but can really shake up the dynamics of the race, most notably with the fact that Democrats have two great candidates who might be interested in the seat.
Democrats have fielded pretty good candidates in the past;
In 2020, they fielded Cal Cunningham, who was a good candidate until allegations of a sexual affair emerged that sunk his campaign.
And then in 2022, state supreme court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley was also considered a strong candidate, who put up a good showing by only losing by around three points, despite depressed Democratic turnout, mostly with Black voters in the state.
So, Democrats have not really done a poor job at fielding candidates.
And in 2026, they have two very, arguably great candidates, and current governor Roy Cooper, who is currently serving his second term, and first-term Democratic representative Jeff Jackson, who is currently running for attorney general in 2024.
Starting off with Jeff Jackson, he originally ran for Senate in 2022 but dropped out during the primary in an effort to aid Cheri Beasley's candidacy, and what was arguably like a little bit of a political quid pro quo, he was able to secure the newly redistricted 14th District, which is centered in Charlotte, and he won that district with ease.
However, now that Republicans control the Supreme Court, and they are redistricting the state once again, in a highly unusual circumstance, North Carolina's 14th District is looking like a key target for Republicans to convert into a more conservative district.
Therefore, Jackson is running for attorney general, and that race is arguably a toss-up. I haven't formally rated it, but he is a strong candidate.
It's unclear who Jackson will face, but he has a very good shot at winning if he runs a well-financed and mistake-free campaign.
Assuming Jackson wins the attorney general spot, that would be a great launching pad for a Senate run two years later. Winning the attorney general spot would powerful evidence to voters, to analysts, to the United States of America, that Jackson can win North Carolina on a statewide level.
Now, the attorney general position is different than the Senate position. Senate seats are federal offices; attorney general seats are statewide offices.
The qualifications are different, but ultimately, North Carolinians are most likely to cast the same vote for president, senator, and attorney general, and governor.
They're unlikely to really discriminate in one of the positions or the other.
All of this is to say that 2024 really acts as like a test, or a litmus test, or a rite of passage for Jeff Jackson, to see if he has what it takes, and if he proves that he does in the attorney general race, then I'd argue that he could maybe make North Carolina a toss-up.
The incumbent Republican in a state that went to Donald Trump by three points, at the same time,
Moving on, I'd argue the stronger of the two candidates is Roy Cooper, the incumbent, second-term governor of North Carolina.
Now, going back into his history, Cooper defeated incumbent Governor Pat McCrory, a Republican, in 2016, albeit by an extremely small margin, less than half a point, yet still a fairly impressive victory, nevertheless, considering he beat an incumbent in a year where Donald Trump won the presidential level by three points.
In 2020, Cooper put up an equally impressive performance by winning reelection with 51.5% of the vote, or nearly a 5-point margin of victory.
That is a very impressive showing for a Democrat in North Carolina, and since Cooper will be term-limited in 2024, he's not running for reelection this year, and he'll be out of office by January 2025.
Cooper’s probably going to be wondering if it's a good idea to either ride off into the sunset and pass on the torch to the next Democrat(s), or if he might as well see if he has the electoral credibility to successfully win the elusive Senate election in North Carolina.
That could be an appealing opportunity if Cooper wants to remain in the political field. It's really his only option at this point, barring a House race that wouldn't really make much political sense for him.
And if Cooper won that election, that would provide him with a great national profile. Who knows, maybe he could be drafted as a vice president, or even run for president himself. He'd have a very nice electoral appeal, being the only Democrat to win consistently in North Carolina.
Now, all of this is to say that Democrats have a good opportunity in North Carolina.
But ultimately, for the time being, with all of these things being speculation, the state has proven to be more red than blue, even if it's by a very small amount, and seems to be holding true in 2024, and I would suspect that to hold true in 2026 as well.
Click here to read Senate 2026: Part 7
