FORECASTS FOR SENATE 2026 PART 7: LEANS DEMOCRAT
MICHIGAN
I'm only categorizing one Democratic Senate seat as leans Democratic for the time being, and that state is Michigan, with incumbent Democrat Gary Peters being up for reelection.
Now, as I mentioned earlier, Peters had a rather disappointing showing in 2020, winning against Republican John James by less than two points, to the point where the election could not be decided on Election night; it was a few days before it could really be determined with sufficient accuracy.
Now, this was a far cry from his showing in 2014, when Peters won the seat in a landslide with nearly 14-point margins.
Looking forward to 2026, although Peters hasn't declared whether he is running for reelection, it seems that Democrats have a good chance of winning. Michigan, out of the three Rust Belt swing states, being Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, was the bluest of all three.
As of now, I would predict there to be two toss-up races, both of which are in states with currently Democratic senators.
The first of which is Michigan, where Gary Peters won his second term in 2020 by a rather disappointing margin. He won against John James by less than two points, while Joe Biden was winning the state by nearly three.
This was a far cry from Peters’ 2014 showing, where he weathered the Republican wave and won the seat by 14 points against a past Republican Secretary of State.
So, judging by this, it would seem that Gary Peters is destined for a loss in 2026, considering he declined so heavily from 2014 to 2020.
But I'd argue it isn't as simple as this.
Gary Peters seems to be above water, at least, and fairly popular in Michigan. He's not extremely far left; he's a conventional liberal Democrat who doesn't have too much of a national profile but is instead more focused on the procedural side of things in the Senate chamber, among others.
And I'd argue that that 1.5% win was more of a fluke, in that maybe Peters didn't campaign as vigorously as he should, or he got a little too comfortable thinking that, "Oh, Michigan is looking like a very strong Biden state. Oh, I won so heavily in 2014," that he didn't really give enough attention to the election as was needed.
Obviously, Peters, or one of his wiser campaign advisers, will realize that it is necessary to give your full attention to a race in Michigan, which is one of the most competitive states in the nation.
And therefore, I think Gary Peters isn't immediately out. In fact, I think he has a roughly equal chance of winning reelection.
Now, I think I, and other forecasters, will have a better sense of the state of this election once we learn how Michigan goes in 2024.
Currently, Joe Biden is losing most of the polls there; he's underwater there, but it's likely that Joe Biden will have a resurgence in, maybe not popularity, but his polling numbers against Donald Trump as the election comes nearer. Trump is officially the Republican nominee and is possibly convicted in his numerous criminal trials of his new criminal offenses.
Since it's roughly the state of the presidential election in Michigan is pretty much impossible to predict 7 months before the presidential race, it's even more difficult to predict how the Senate race two years from now will look.
My best guess is that Gary Peters, or another Democrat, won't be facing an uphill battle, but they won't have the luxury of a clear Democratic lean in Michigan.
There is a current Senate election going on in Michigan, with Elissa Slotkin, Democratic representative in a Trump district, facing off against, most likely, facing off against an unknown Republican.
The race is considered by most to be slightly in the Democratic column, but if a strong or moderate Republican wins the primary, then that can successfully turn the race into a toss-up, a true toss-up.
And how that race ends up going will suggest many things about 2026 and the Senate race.
So, for Michigan, overall, it will take further clarification provided by the two prominent elections in 2024 to make a strong prediction about 2026.
Now, the thing about Michigan is that in 2022, Democrats had an extremely strong showing in the gubernatorial election, as well as the House elections, and even the state legislative elections.
They gained a trifecta in the Michigan government for the first time in decades, with Democrats finally winning the state House and the state Senate, thanks to fair maps and also just an overall greater showing in the Midwest.
Incumbent Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer won her race by over 10 points against a very flawed Republican candidate, Tudor Dixon.
But similarly, other state executive officers in Michigan, including Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, won their races by north of 10 points as well.
Now, all of this might suggest a smashing Democratic victory in 2024 and beyond, but obviously, midterm elections aren't great predictors for presidential elections or elections in different years, in general.
So, it really depends on if Michigan will shift rightward come November, to really make an accurate prediction about 2026.
GEORGIA
The second toss-up state, and the final state we'll mention today, is Georgia, one of the most competitive states in the nation, only recently.
Now, for decades, in the late 20th century and the early 21st century, Georgia had a very clear Republican lean, both in margin and consistency, as conservative Democrats in the South finally eroded in support and were no longer able to win elections in Republican-leaning states. Democrats lost most, if not all, of their political influence in Georgia.
Their last governor was Roy Barnes, and he was defeated by Republican Sonny Perdue in the 2002 Georgia gubernatorial election by over five points.
Since then, no Democrat has won the governor's election in that state, and a similar story occurs with the Senate election.
The last Democratic senator to have served in Georgia was Zell Miller, a very conservative Democrat. And once he retired, the 2004 Senate election in Georgia for his seat went to the Republicans by nearly 20 points.
Since then, no Democrat has come very close to winning a Senate or gubernatorial election until 2018, when Democrat Stacey Abrams came within three points of winning the gubernatorial election against Brian Kemp.
This election was arguably what reinvigorated Democratic hopes in Georgia, and they, by not, instead of nominating a conservative white Democrat in the hopes of gaining support from rural white voters who had deserted the Democrats for many years by now, they had rested their hopes in a young, black, arguably like, progressive candidate who had successfully managed to not only overperform these supposed old conservative Democrats but nearly come close to winning herself.
Now, in 2020, Joe Biden was able to cement this trend as he won Georgia for the first time since 1992, and both of Georgia's Senate seats flipped from Republican to Democratic in the very unusual double runoff on January 5th, 2021.
Now, the Democratic, the Democratic senator up for reelection in 2026 is Jon Ossoff.
He defeated incumbent Senator David Perdue in 2020, which was a very impressive showing.
David Perdue, as opposed to the other senator, Kelly Loeffler, was considered a fairly strong candidate, who at the beginning of the 2020 cycle wasn't thought to be vulnerable in the slightest, but Jon Ossoff had managed to turn that race into a true toss-up and eventually a Democratic victory by vigorously campaigning, avoiding blunders, and positioning himself as a liberal candidate who represents the interests of Georgians rather than Washington, D.C.
And in 2026, and 2024, Georgia is bound to be one of the most hotly contested states in the nation.
Current polling, as in most other swing states, shows Donald Trump with a notable advantage over Joe Biden, but personally, I believe this advantage will erode in the months coming.
Ultimately, Georgia is impossible to really predict this early on in the presidential cycle, and even, it's possible that it's equally difficult to predict come September or October, or even November, simply because of its nearly 50/50 nature.
That being said, 2026 is likely to be another toss-up race. Jon Ossoff is a strong candidate, but the Republicans have, have a likely strong candidate of their own in incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp.
Kemp will be term-limited in 2026, after winning a very impressive nearly 8-point victory in 2022 over Stacey Abrams.
If Kemp wins the nomination and faces Jon Ossoff, that race would be a true toss-up, if not slightly leaning towards the Republicans, simply because a midterm, with, generally speaking, lower black turnout and higher, would benefit Republicans to the point where Brian Kemp could successfully eke out a small, albeit clear, victory.
However, it is not known whether he is running for the, for the seat, as of now, and, and therefore, the race remains in the toss-up.
