SENATE 2026 - SAFE FOR DEMOCRATS
Calls as of late 2023
So, on to the safe states for the Democrats.
OREGON
I would personally rate Oregon as a safe state.
Incumbent Jeff Merkley is a very strong incumbent.
Since his first election in 2008, where he defeated incumbent Senator Gordon Smith, who was a Republican, by around 3 or 4 points, he has not faced a serious challenge in the Senate for a very long time.
It's unlikely that 2026 will finally be the year to give him a real challenge either.
NEW MEXICO
Moving down to New Mexico, this is another state which, it is not a sea of blue like California or Vermont is, but it is unmistakably blue.
It has a very clear blue tint, and Ben Ray Luján, the one-term Democrat who has been serving since 2021, won his first term in 2020 by nearly six points.
Not a great showing, but it's likely he'll improve that, and six points, honestly, seems like the lowest bar that a Democrat could really receive.
I would consider Democrats to have a very good, very nearly 100% chance of retaining the seat come 2026.
COLORODO
It's a similar story in Colorado, where Senator John Hickenlooper, who was originally the governor of Colorado, is very likely to win a third term in 2026, as Colorado only continues to shift towards the Democrats.
That could be very much seen in 2022, when Governor Jared Polis nearly won reelection by 20 points, and Democratic Senator John Bennett nearly won reelection by 15, both of which were terrific performances, especially considering 2022 all around was a better year than 2020.
ILLINOIS
Now, on to Illinois, which has been a safe Democratic seat for quite a while, around since the 1990s. Chicago has grown in population, and its surrounding suburbs, the collar counties, have only gotten bluer and more populous, and the rural downstate areas have only decreased in population.
That's a state where incumbent Dick Durbin, who is the second in command Democratic senator in the caucus, looks very likely to win, or if he retires, another Democratic candidate will fairly certainly win that election as well.
MASSACHUSETTS & RHODE ISLAND
Massachusetts and Rhode Island, both Northeastern states which are among the bluest in the nation, also seem likely to return their Democrats to the Senate without much hassle.
NEW JERSEY
A similar story with New Jersey, where prominent Democrat Cory Booker looks poised to run and win another term.
DELAWARE
Go a little down south, you see something similar in Delaware, which is Joe Biden's home state.
That would likely retain Chris Coons, who is now serving his second term.
That wraps up the safe states for the Democrats.
Of all of those states, New Mexico is the closest to being "likely," I would say, simply because looking at 2020 and the preceding elections, it is slightly less blue, but it's retained a very firm Democratic tint.
It's hard to see how that changes in 2026, barring a very strong Republican entering the race, which just doesn't seem likely at this point.
Click to read Senate 2026: Part 4
