Washington, Part 1: A Democrat's Utopia

Between its growing suburbs, high education levels, and diversifying electorate, the Evergreen State is extremely well-suited for today's Democratic Party.

What makes Washington notable for me is that it's very blue and only getting bluer.

From Barack Obama’s 15 point victory in 2012, Washington has only leaned further left, culminating in Joe Biden’s decisive 19-point victory in 2020— at a time when traditionally blue states like California and New York shifted rightward - in the opposite direction.

This raises two key questions:

First, has Washington always shown such a strong Democratic lean?

Second, what specific dynamics are driving Washington’s continued shift to the left, especially as other blue states move in the opposite direction?

Washington’s Political Backstory

For much of its history, Washington was not solidly Democratic at all. In fact, from its admission to the Union until the 1992 presidential election, Washington was a hotly contested swing state —and arguably even leaned Republican. From 1952 to 1984, only two out of nine Democratic presidential candidates won in Washington, with Ronald Reagan carrying the state decisively at 55.8% in 1984.

But a turning point came in 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis, despite losing nationally by 7.8%, carried Washington by a narrow 1.6%. This meant the Evergreen State voted nearly 10 points to the left of the nation that year.

That election marked Washington’s shift from swing state to a reliably Democrat one. Since then, Washington has consistently voted Democratic at the presidential level - has never voted Republican on the presidential level - and this trend shows no signs of reversing

Moments of Republican Resurgence

Still, Democrats have faced setbacks in the state over the years. In 1994, during the “Republican Revolution” in Bill Clinton’s first midterm, Republicans flipped a whopping six House seats in Washington, shifting the balance from an 8-1 Democratic majority to a 7-2 Republican one, even ousting incumbent Speaker Tom Foley. Republicans also won the Senate race that year by an 11.5% margin. And in 2004, Democrat Christine Gregoire won the governor's race by a razor-thin margin of 129 votes—the closest in U.S. history.

Still, there have been times since when Democrats faltered in the state. For example, in the 1994 elections (Bill Clinton's first midterm, colloquially known as the Republican Revolution), Republicans flipped a whopping 6 House seats in Washington – shifting the balance from 8-1 Dems to 7-2 Reps and even taking out incumbent Speaker Tom Foley – while simultaneously winning the Senate election by 11.5%.

And in 2004, Democrat Christine Gregoire won the governor’s race by a razor-thin margin of 129 votes — the closest in United States' history.

The Rise of a Deep Blue State: 2000 to 2020

But despite hiccups like these, Washington has grown only bluer over time.

Elections from 2000 to 2020 showcase this shift clearly: In 2000, Al Gore won Washington by 5.6%. In 2004, John Kerry increased that margin to 7.2%, even as the nation as whole leaned more Republican, and voted 3 points more Republican. In 2008, Barack Obama won the state by a commanding 17% amidst his national landslide, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton improved on Obama’s 2012 margin by nearly 2%, despite underperforming him in most other states. By 2020, Joe Biden attained a new high in the state, winning Washington by 19.2%. In 20 years, Washington shifted from voting 5 points to the left of the nation to a remarkable 15.

Down-ballot Trends

Beyond the presidential level, Washington has shown remarkable consistency for Democrats in down-ballot races since the 1994 midterms.

Since 2000, Democrats have continuously held the governorship and both Senate seats for the past 24 years, despite facing competitive elections along the way. Democrats have also maintained a majority of Washington's House seats.

Republican Challenges and the “Dino Rossi Effect”

Although Republicans have occasionally won state-level positions like Secretary of State, Attorney General, and State Treasurer, these offices have generally been less partisan than congressional seats. Notably, Republicans holding these positions—such as Attorney General Rob McKenna and Secretary of State Kim Wyman—tended towards the moderate faction of the party. Wyman’s 2021 resignation to join the Biden administration highlights the brand of moderate Republicanism capable of winning in Washington. In fact, Wyman resigned her position in 2021 to serve as a member of the Biden administration, speaking volumes about the brand of Republicanism capable of winning in Washington: not a very conservative one.

Despite fielding strong candidates, Republicans have struggled to to break within 4 to 5 points of victory in Washington over the past two decades. Dino Rossi, for instance, exemplifies these challenges. He ran multiple strong, close campaigns for governor, Senate, and the House but was unable to secure a victory, even in favorable political climates. In his 2004 gubernatorial race, he narrowly lost by 129 votes, and his 2008 rematch ended with a 6.5-point loss in a deeply Democratic year, while John McCain lost by 17 points in the state.

National vs. Washington Democratic Trends: A Contrast in Down-Ballot Success

Washington’s steady Democratic down-ballot success stands in stark contrast to Democrats’ struggles elsewhere across the nation to match top-of-the-ticket results down-ballot. These struggles have manifested in Senate, House and countless state legislative races across the country.

Nationally, Democrats often face a "ballot drop-off," underperforming in Senate, House, and state legislative races despite strong presidential showings. For instance, in 2020, Democratic Senate candidates in Biden-won states like Maine and Michigan, for example, seriously underperformed the presidential topline. .

In Maine, Biden won by 10 points, and Republican Senator Susan Collins won re-election by a whopping 9 points. In House races, Democrats lost nine districts that Biden had won. This pattern extended into 2022, with Democrat Senate and gubernatorial candidates underperforming in traditionally blue states like New York and California, losing seats that Biden had carried comfortably in 2020 and arguably costing them the House majority.

Washington, however, has bucked this trend. In 2020, as Biden won the state by 19 points, Democratic House candidates won their collective races by over 20 points—a small but significant over-performance that contrasted with the nationwide 1.7% underperformance of Biden’s margin in House races.

So why has Washington remained so reliably Democratic, where other states—from battlegrounds like Michigan to Democratic strongholds like California—have faltered?

Why Republicans Seem to Have a Shot in Washington

On the face of it, Republicans might seem to have a lot going for them in the Evergreen state.

Geographically, Washington sits in the Pacific Northwest, bordered by Idaho and Oregon.

Idaho is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, largely due to its high proportion of rural residents, and Oregon —while solidly blue overall—remains largely rural outside of its urban centers, particularly in the eastern half.while being very blue overall, remains a very rural state outside of its urban center, especially in its eastern half. Like its neighbors, Washington boasts vast rural areas, where voters are typically quite conservative.

Demographically, Washington might also appear favorable for Republicans. According to the 2020 Census, approximately 70% of Washington’s population is non-Hispanic white, compared to 61% nationally. This puts Washington demographically in the ballpark of states like Ohio (61.6% non-Hispanic white), Alabama (63%), and Oklahoma (61.6%). Yet, in 2020, Washington voted for Biden by a commanding 19 points, while Trump won Ohio by 8, Alabama by 26, and Oklahoma by 33.

Given these characteristics, one might assume Republicans have a strong shot at closing the gap in Washington. Indeed, Republicans often operate under this belief, frequently investing heavily in at least one statewide race per cycle, thinking they have a real chance. However, despite these efforts, Republicans have consistently fallen short, often by significant margins.

Combined, these factors could suggest to many that Republicans have a strong shot at improving their margins in the state. Indeed, Republicans have very consistently acted in this belief, frequently investing heavily in at least one statewide race per cycle, thinking they have a real chance. But they ultimately don't win, and recently, have been unable to come very close.

A recent example is the 2022 Senate race, where Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley, a former nurse and seemingly ideal moderate, went up against five-term Democratic Senator Patty Murray in a difficult national environment for Democrats given the unpopularity of President Biden. Republicans poured over $20 million into the race, and polls showed Smiley running neck and neck with Murray. However, on election night, the race was called soon after polls closed, with Murray winning by a whopping 14 points.

So, what gives?

Continue reading Washington, Part 2: A Democrat’s Utopia

.