Montana: Blue(ish) Sheep of the Mountain West

Montana, while still a Republican stronghold, is noticeably bluer than the rest of the Mountain West due to unique demographic factors and shifts

Montana is located in the Mountain West - the region including Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

What all these states have in common is that they are very rural, very white and very Republican.

The reason the Mountain West, and in part the Great Plains, is often considered among the most Republican areas of the nation (even more so than the South) is just how long and consistently they've been voting Republican - basically since the mid-20th century. 

These states have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1964. And this wasn't just a late 20th-century occurrence as it's been in the South; it's been that way for a while.

How Montana Stacks Up

Just like its Mountain West neighbors, Montana is extremely rural, and it's very Republican.

Montanans has voted for the Republican nominee in all but two presidential elections since 1952. Since 1900, Wyoming has voted Democratic 22.6% of the time and Republican 77.4% of the time.

But for some reason, Montana isn't quite as Republican as it's neighboring Mountain West states. 

If you look at Montana's voting history, it actually voted Democratic in 1992 for Bill Clinton albeit by only a small margin of ~2%. Partly, this happened because Ross Perot, the third-party candidate, got a large percentage of the vote, cutting into George H.W. Bush's share. 

But at the same time, Clinton didn't win Wyoming that year, he didn't win the Dakotas, although he did come close in those states. 

More recently in 2008, Barack Obama, in his close to a landslide victory, won nationwide by 7 points in terms of the popular vote and won 365 electoral votes. Obama lost Montana, but only by ~2%, whereas he lost most of the rest of the Mountain West by upwards of ~10% or 20% the same year. 

Likewise, if you look at the officeholders in Montana right now, a slight blue tint shines through.

It currently has a Democratic senator Jon Tester, who I’ll discuss further. Before 2020, it had a two-term Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, and before that, another Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer. 

Obviously, down-ballot races or state-level races differ substantially in terms of the margin and how they're decided. But all this suggests that there may be something that separates Montana, albeit slightly, from its neighboring states. And that leads to the question, among others, of whether it could ever potentially be a Democratic state. 

Drivers for Montana's Blue Tinge

So what's going on in Montana?

First, Montana has Billings, the state’s largest city with a population of 117,000, and several smaller cities, like Missoula (pop. 77,000), Bozeman (pop. 56,000) and Helena, the state capital with a population of ~32,000, which help keep Democrats above 40% in terms of the popular vote most of the time in Montana. 

Second, Montana also has a large number of Indian reservations and a substantial Native American population. And significantly - Native Americans voters in Montana, much like Native Americans in Arizona or other areas of the South - are staunchly Democrat.

Nationally, Native Americans vote Democrat 56% to Republican 40% as of 2022¹ but their voting pattern varies significantly state to state, based on tribal affiliations. For example, if you look at Native Americans in Oklahoma, they're one of the most Republican groups in the nation. They comprise close to 10% of the state’s population, which helps maintain Oklahoma’s staunch Republican status. Another example is North Carolina's Robeson County, where Native Americans voters there are also very conservative, and that county is holistically rightwards, which is a serious problem for Democrats in that state. 

Third, an issue that shows Montanan's ideological modernism is its fairly moderate position on abortion. Abortion is legal in Montana and overall, it is the most pro-choice state in the Mountain West, an outlier considering that states in the rest of the region are stridently anti-abortion.

Exit polls in the 2020 elections show some of the intriguing voter dynamics at play in the state: male voters gave Donald Trump 63% of their votes, while female voters gave Trump a much smaller 52% of their votes — suggesting that Montana’s female voter population is far more liberal than its male voter population.

This divide along gender lines is rarely seen to this extent in any other state. This also helps explain why a "born alive" referendum in 2022, a pro-life measure supported by many Republicans and anti-abortion groups in Montana, and opposed by many on the opposite side of the spectrum, actually failed by 6 points in 2020—a year, of course, taking place after the Dobbs ruling.

Ultimately, these factors are mainly what keep Democrats polling in the state.

Mountain West & The White Vote

Notwithstanding the above, what will likely keep Montana and many other states in the Mountain West in the Republican column for the foreseeable future lies in their staggeringly high proportion of white voters.

2020 presidential election exit polls show that white voters constituted 88% of Montana's total voting population. Nationally, white voters made up a much lower amount - about 2/3 of the total voting population that year.

Notably, unlike other states in the Mountain West, white voters in Montana actually voted very similarly to the national average. About 58% of Montanans voting for Donald Trump compared to 39% for Joe Biden, yielding a 19-point victory for Trump overall. White voters nationally voted for Trump by a 17-point margin.

So, it’s not that white voters in Montana are especially ideologically conservative. It’s just that the proportion of white voters in the state is simply too large for Democrats to gain traction with this demographic.

In contrast, white voters in Wyoming, Idaho and other states in the Mountain West, tend to be more conservative than the national average. Nationally, white people vote for Republicans ~57% of the time. But, in the Mountain West, they probably vote for Republican upwards of 65%. 

(And if that seems high, just for comparison, white voters in Mississippi and other areas in the Deep South, usually vote Republican upwards of >90% -- which is an astonishing amount. It's crazy.)

Bottom line: The overall proportion of white voters in the Mountain West, in Montana, and Wyoming, in Idaho, the Dakotas, is just incredible. In many of these states, they are upwards of 95% white. And that's one of the reasons why it's hard to see for Democrats to have a real shot at winning Montana on the presidential level, although they could win a statewide election in this coming year.

2024 Outlook

Now, it's really impossible to talk about Montana and its politics without mentioning Jon Tester, who has arguably been the dominant political figure in the state for much of the 21st century. Tester has served in the Senate since 2006 when he defeated long-time incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns in the Democratic national environment of the state senate in Helena, where he was one of the most important politicians in the state in his own right, even back then.

Tester and his electoral success really provides a plausible path forward for Democrats in the state. Not only did Tester win the Senate election in 2006, but he has successfully defended his seat in the two elections since then, despite Montana backing Republicans in presidential elections during the same period of time by upwards of 10 or even 15 percentage points.

In 2012, Tester won re-election while Obama lost the state by 13 percentage points, which is an especially impressive feat considering that politics as a whole had become much more polarized, with fewer voters splitting their tickets or voting one party for president while voting another party for Senate by that time. Tester was able to really counteract this phenomenon by managing to over-perform Obama by around 15 percentage points.

In another phenomenal performance, two years after Donald Trump won the state by over 21 percentage points, Tester was actually able to retain his seat by around 3.5 percentage points in 2018.

Now Tester had the aid of friendly national environments in all three of his successful elections, but that shouldn’t discount his considerable personal talent. Even as Tester was winning these elections, many other statewide candidates or House candidates were losing election by a very large margin.

Tester’s tremendous appeal to Montana voters is highly personal and rooted in his identity as an authentic Montanan. Before entering politics, Tester was a farmer. In fact, even now, Tester continues to work his own farm in Montana while spending considerable time in D.C. Over his 18 years in public office, Tester has proven to be very in touch with the needs of his state's voters and an effective advocate for his constituents.

Compared to the Democratic party at large, Tester takes a number of more conservative political positions whether on the economy or on gun rights, for example, or immigration. These likely help Tester’s appeal to conservative Montana white voters who simply might not consider voting for a Democrat who is against the Second Amendment, or someone more aligned with the national party on issues like the environment, where a lot of Democrats' climate change counteractive proposals would likely be perceived as damaging to Montana's economy and personally to many of its residents.

Tester has really carved out a very positive profile among the state's voters, so much so that he may even win another re-election this coming November - even while Joe Biden is likely to lose the state by upwards of 15 percentage points to Donald Trump.

Unique Blueprint for the State

While Tester really provides a great blueprint for Democrats, replicating his success may require a great deal more than just adopting similar positions.

In Indiana, Democratic Senate incumbent Joe Donnelly, a former lawyer and small businessman, ran for re-election. Like Tester, Donnelly positioned himself as a moderate, and took similar conservative positions to Tester around taxes and gun control and was endorsed by the National Rifle Association in his 2008 and 2010 elections. Ultimately, Donnelly failed to win re-election, and was defeated by six points in a state that voted for Trump by around 20 percentage points in 2016.

Despite taking similar positions to Tester, Donnelly was unable to win the same level of crossover support largely because he was unable to establish the same level of personal appeal and authenticity. It would be interesting to see how other Democrats can, if they can muster the same support on a personal level, and if this will help other Democrats besides Tester win races in the state. That's really the name of the game for Democrats in the future, I would say.

Where Does Montana Go From Here?

Now, I mentioned that the only way I could see that happening is if the state experiences a pretty significant demographic change, if it diversifies, which can happen as the state grows, based on the complexion of people who are coming into the state, whether they’re minorities, retirees, older, or otherwise.

And the truth is, Montana is growing. It's growing just like the rest of the Mountain West.

Idaho is gaining population. It's going to probably gain a congressional district in 2030.

Montana gained an additional congressional district following the 2020 census going from having one representative to two. 

In 2022 a number of state legislative districts were decided by relatively close margins. In the Montana state House, twelve districts (23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 41, 48, 50, 51, 64, 77, and 92) were won by Republicans by 15% points or less. In the state Senate, Republicans won five districts (11, 12, 13, 30, and 39) by 15% points or less.

In future election cycles where the national environment may be more favorable, Democrats may be able to gain a significant number of seats in the state legislature which would bolster their presence in state government and policymaking.

Looking Ahead

Looking at the future of the state and its political trajectory, there are trends on record for both the Democrats and Republicans in the state.

As mentioned Montana's fast-growing population, among the fastest in the nation, may benefit both parties, since much of this population growth is concentrated in suburban areas and cities.

Growth will no doubt boost Democrats, especially in state legislative races concentrated in these areas. However, many of Montana's urban areas are actually more conservative than many might expect, including its largest city of Billings.

So, urban growth in the city proper and its surrounding suburbs may actually not provide Democrats with as much advantage as one might think.

However, Billings and its surrounding suburbs have actually shifted to the left during the 21st century, and it's likely to continue this trend in the coming years and decades.

This can potentially make Montana much more narrow in future elections.

Additionally, the Native American vote, while strongly Democratic, can potentially be expanded upon, both in terms of margin and turnout. If Democrats can win an even higher percentage of these voters and also turn out even more of these voters in presidential and midterm elections, they could really expand their coalition so that they can truly compete in statewide elections.

One notable opportunity for Democrats would be Montana's first district, which encompasses the western, more liberal half of the state, anchored by the city of Missoula, which is much more liberal than its eastern counterpart of Billings.

Democrats seriously contested the seat in 2022, with Monica Tranel, a former Olympic athlete, losing only by 3 percentage points to Republican former representative Ryan Zinke in a district that Trump won by over 7 percentage points in 2020.

In a blue year like 2022, a well-funded Democratic nominee could potentially flip the district for the Democrats, considering it is also moving towards the left on the presidential level. Tranel is once again running for the seat this year, in 2022, and her campaign is receiving funding from the state and national Democratic party.

So, it is indeed possible that Democrats could actually secure the district this November, but I do think this is unlikely considering that her campaign is tied to that of Joe Biden, whose popularity has slipped heavily in Montana, a state in which his popularity was already poor before he even entered office.

Close-Out

In terms of its future political trajectory, Montana is likely to become more competitive in future elections, but whether this process takes years or decades is dependent upon Democrats' consistent efforts in elections across the board, on every level of the ballot, not simply the presidential race or a Senate election featuring Jon Tester. Whether Tester loses reelection this year or retires in 2030, Tester will not serve forever, and after his exit, Democrats will be left with no substantial influence in the state unless they can build a stronger presence.

1. Native Americans remained solidly Democratic in their voting preferences in 2022